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Tariff-triggered volatility persists, while corporate earnings are back in focus

US stocks closed on Friday with some gains, after a volatile week amid the trade war and US consumer confidence marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. Meanwhile, US President Trump exempted smartphones, computers, and other tech products from imposed tariffs on Chinese imports. This week, global markets will remain focused on escalating trade tensions between the US and China, with both countries imposing steep tariffs on each other's goods. Investors will also be closely monitoring corporate earnings. First reports from major US banks, including JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley on Friday came in better than expected. 

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  • Autore Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
  • Tempo di lettura 5 minuto

JPMorgan
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Hong Kong shares rose over 2% on Monday, leading gains in the Asia-Pacific region after US President Donald Trump paused tariffs on consumer electronics. The Hang Seng Index climbed 2.3% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased 2.5%. Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi also saw significant gains, rising 1.9% and 1%, respectively. The tariff exemptions, which include smartphones and computers, have boosted market sentiment, although Trump indicated the exemptions might not be permanent. The exemptions are seen as a relief for the tech sector, which has faced substantial market volatility and potential cost increases. In other news, China's exports increased by 12.4% in March, significantly surpassing expectations, as businesses accelerated shipments to avoid US tariffs. Imports, however, declined by 4.3% due to weak domestic demand.

China imposed 125% tariffs on US goods

China announced on Friday that it will increase tariffs on US goods to 125% from 84%, starting 12 April, in retaliation to US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs. The Trump administration confirmed that the US tariff rate on Chinese imports now totals 145%. This escalation in trade tensions has diminished hopes for a US-China trade deal. Goldman Sachs has revised its China GDP forecast to 4%, citing the impact of US trade tensions and slower global growth.

Wall Street ends volatile week with gains

US stocks surged on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 619 points to 40,212.71, the S&P 500 rising 1.8% to 5363.36, and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 2.1% to 16,724.46. This capped one of the most turbulent weeks on Wall Street, marked by significant volatility due to trade policy uncertainty. Earlier this week, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on some tariffs, which initially boosted markets. However, ongoing trade tensions with China, which retaliated with higher tariffs on US goods, continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Despite the tumult, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their best weekly gains since November 2023 and 2022, respectively.

Earnings season kicked off

JPMorgan Chase reported first-quarter earnings of USD 5.07 per share on Friday, surpassing estimates due to robust equity trading activity. Revenue increased by 8% driven by higher asset management and investment banking fees. Despite the solid results, CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned about economic turbulence, citing factors such as geopolitical issues, potential trade wars, and high inflation. Morgan Stanley reported first-quarter earnings of USD 2.60 per share, surpassing the USD 2.20 per share estimate.

US consumer sentiment falls sharply in April

Consumer confidence dropped in the US by 11% in April compared to March, reaching 50.8 according to the University of Michigan on Friday. This marks the fourth consecutive month of decline, with inflation expectations rising to 6.7%, the highest since 1981. The sentiment decline is driven by fears of escalating global trade tensions and their impact on prices and the economy. President Trump's recent tariff decisions, including a partial reversal and new levies on China, have further heightened economic concerns.

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Goldman Sachs.

Economic data in focus: Swiss Producer and Import Price Index (08:30).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.