Aug 18, 2017
After a three-day recovery, yesterday stock exchanges gave way again as investors are worrying about the capability of the US government to implement its agenda given recent political turmoil on the one hand. On the other hand, the Barcelona terrorist attacks dampen sentiment.
Aug 17, 2017
Minutes of the last meeting of the Fed’s Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) showed that there is no consensus on the timetable of future interest rate hikes, mainly due to uncertainties about continuously low inflationary pressure. Some central bankers pleaded to suspend interest rate hikes for the moment, while others pointed to the solid economic situation and necessary further interest rates.
Aug 16, 2017
The recovery on equity markets continued in the face of a temporary and still fragile easing in the conflict between the USA and North Korea. Sentiment was also brightened by positively surprising US economic data. Retail sales rose twice as much as expected in July. The New York Fed’s activity barometer, the Empire State Index, signaled significantly stronger growth in the US industrial sector.
Aug 15, 2017
After several states, above all China, have endeavored to achieve a deescalation of the conflict between the USA and North Korea, the mood on the financial markets has calmed down somewhat again at the beginning of the week. However, the current de-escalation could be deceptive and exchanges will continue to react sensitively to geopolitical uncertainties.
Aug 8, 2017
The incoming economic data point to robust global growth while monetary policies remain supportive - even if policy tightening is brought forward somewhat in Europe, subdued inflation should prompt Japan and perhaps even the US to surprise on the dovish side. We keep our preference for equities and for currencies with a hawkish surprise potential.