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LGT Beacon: Strategy for final quarter: staying the course

September 11, 2019

The risks arising from the so-called trade war continue to loom over the usual late-cycle slowdown, but economic growth remains sufficient and central banks have become more accommodative. We are hence maintaining a modest overweight allocation to equities, with a defensive tilt, a preference for the US, and a bias to act counter-cyclically when opportunities arise. 

Following our quarterly asset allocation review for the fourth quarter, which ended last Friday, we adjusted our investment outlook for the coming three to six months. In brief, while staying the course in general, we have further shifted our main active weight from emerging market debt (still overweight) further in favor of the US equities (increased overweight).

The global economy is likely to continue to grow at a slower pace than in recent years. However, with the US still expanding at around potential and the emerging markets stabilizing, the world should avoid a recession.

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Note: The next edition of the LGT Beacon is scheduled for October 2019.