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LGT Navigator: Economic and inflation data regain weight

September 1, 2021

On the stock markets, consolidation set in after relief from statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that a departure from ultra-expansive monetary policy is not yet to be expected immediately. The latest economic data confirmed concerns about inflation overshooting – the question remains, temporary or longer-term – as well as signs of a weakening of the economic recovery. The focus is now increasingly on the purchasing managers surveys from Europe and the United States, which are due today, as well as new indications from the US labor market.

Economic and inflation data regain weight

On the New York Stock Exchange, investors were somewhat more cautious after the recent record chase and realized partial gains. The Dow Jones Industrial closed -0.11% lower at 35'360.73 points, showing a gain of +1.2% for the month of August. The S&P 500 also lost -0.13% to exit Tuesday's trading at 4'522.68 points. On the tech exchange Nasdaq, the indices lost about -0.15%. New indications that confirmed a cooling of the economic recovery trend dampened the in and of itself positive mood of investors. Thus, the purchasing managers index from Chicago signaled a stronger than expected decline from 73.4 to 66.8 points (consensus 69.4) a weakening of sentiment in the entire American industry. Against the backdrop of bottlenecks, supply problems and labor shortages, the national US purchasing managers index from the Institute for Supply Management ISM due this afternoon at 16:00 is now eagerly awaited. Furthermore, ADP's report on employment trends in the US private sector – as an indication of the official US labor market report to follow on Friday – will also be in focus today.

Inflation rate in the eurozone reaches ten-year high

In the euro-area, consumer prices rose by +3% (consensus +2.7%) on an annual basis, reaching the highest level since the end of 2011. As recently as July, annual inflation was “only” +2.2%. The strongest increase was seen in energy prices, which rose by +15.4% year-over-year. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, also increased significantly from +0.7% to +1.6%.

In France, inflation rose more strongly than economists had expected in August from +1.5% in July to +2.4% and is now at its highest level in almost three years. At the same time, it was announced that the French economy grew by +1.1% in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter and thus more strongly than initially assumed at +0.9%. According to the statistics office Insee, private consumption had a positive impact thanks to the easing of corona restrictions.

Italy's economy also grew more strongly than expected in the spring. Quarter-on-quarter, GDP expanded by +2.7% compared with only +0.2% in the first quarter.

Swiss economic recovery cools down

The monthly economic barometer compiled by the Swiss Institute for Economic Research (KOF) at ETH Zurich signals a further weakening of the economic recovery trend. The indicator weakened in August for the third month in a row to 113.5 points. According to KOF, the recovery of the Swiss economy from the Corona slump should continue in the coming months.

 

Economic Indicators September 1

MEZ Country Indicator Last period
08:00 GE Retail Sales (July, y/y) +6.2%
09:15 SP IHS Markit PMI Manufacturing (August) 59.0
09:30 SZ PMI Manufacturing (August) 71.1
09:45 IT IHS Markit PMI Manufacturing (August) 60.3
09:50 FR IHS Markit PMI Manufacturing (August) 57.3
09:55 GE IHS Markit PMI Manufacturing (August) 62.7
10:00 EZ IHS Markit PMI Manufacturing (August) 61.5
10:30 UK IHS Markit PMI Manufacturing (August) 60.1
11:00 EZ Unemployment Rate (July)  +7.7%
14:15 US ADP Private Employment (August) +330,000
15:45 US IHS Markit PMI Manufacturing (August) 61.2
16:00 US ISM PMI Manufacturing (August) 59.5

 

Earnings Calender September 1

Country Company Period
FR Pernod Ricard Y

 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi, +41 44 250 78 59, E-Mail: lgt.navigator@lgt.com
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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