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LGT Navigator: Equity markets in Thanksgiving consolidation mode

November 27, 2019

On stock markets, especially on Wall Street, the lack of fresh impetus and the upcoming long "Thanksgiving" holiday weekend in the US seem to be triggering a next consolidation phase. The upcoming "Black Friday" and "Cyber Monday" are both important milestones in the financial year, especially for the retail sector, and are a test of the mood of the consumers and the sentiment regarding the overall economic situation.

Wall Street Stock Markets

Overall, consumer confidence in the US remains at a high level, but the sentiment has deteriorated somewhat shortly before the Christmas season, which is important for the retail sector. This was signaled by the consumer confidence indicator of the New York-based economic research institute The Conference Board with a decline in November from 126.1 to 125.5 points. According to the survey results, the private households surveyed assessed their current situation more negatively than recently, but remained confident with regard to their expectations. Private consumption accounts for around 70% of economic output in the United States, and Christmas business delivers a significant contribution with high-turnover on "Black Friday" and the subsequent "Cyber Monday".

Telephone diplomacy between Washington and Beijing

During a telephone conversation between China's Deputy Prime Minister Liu He and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin, both conflict parties stressed that they had addressed the key issues in the trade dispute and agreed to solve relevant problems. Kellyanne Conway, advisor to US President Donald Trump, said that the US and China are very close to resolving the trade dispute.

Next steps in the US impeachment procedure

Adam Schiff, Chairman of the House House Intelligence Committee, announced that the next step in the impeachment proceedings against US President Trump will be to submit his report to the Justice Committee of the Congress Chamber next Monday after the Thanksgiving weekend. The formal charges against the president would then be derived from this report. This is then followed by a vote in the democratically ruled House of Representatives. If the charges are accepted, there will be a "trial" in the republican-dominated Senate.

German consumers somewhat more confident again

According to the survey results of the consumer research institute GfK, the consumer climate in Germany has brightened again. Contrary to expectations, the consumer sentiment index calculated for December improved from 9.6 to 9.7 points. Both economic and income expectations had risen noticeably in November. In view of the continuing uncertainties such as the trade conflict or the Brexit, the level is satisfactory and the trend in consumer spending in Germany stable, commented the Nuremberg Institute.

Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot to seal merger before year-end

The Italian-American car manufacturer Fiat Chrysler and the French rival Peugeot see themselves on the home stretch of the planned merger to become the world's fourth-largest car manufacturer by the end of this year to bring dry cloths. A binding merger agreement is to be signed in the coming weeks.



Economic Indicators November 27

MEZ Country Indicator Last
08:45 FR Consumer Confidence 104.0
10:00 IT Economic Sentiment 99.0
10:00 IT Business Climate 99.6
10:00 IT Consumer Confidence 111.7
14:30 US GDP Q3 (annualized q/q) +1.9%
16:00 US PCE Core (inflation) index (y/y) +1.7%
16:00 US Personal Income (m/m) +0.3%
16:00 US Pending Home Sales (m/m) +1.5%
16:00 US Pending Home Sales (y/y) +6.3%

Earnings Calendar November 27

Country Corporate Period
US Deere & Co Q4



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