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LGT Navigator: Markets under the spell of monetary policy risks

June 8, 2022

There is currently no clear trend discernible on the stock markets, reflecting the uncertainties surrounding the future course of inflation and the economy and, consequently, the monetary policy of the central banks. On the one hand, central banks could fall behind in the fight against inflation or “stifle” economic growth by adopting an overly aggressive approach. In this respect, tension is also rising ahead of the European Central Bank's landmark interest rate decision on Thursday. Against the backdrop of record-high inflation in the euro area, the ECB will have to position itself for an interest rate turnaround soon.

Markets under the spell of monetary policy risks

On the New York stock market, the indices turned after a weak start and closed with respectable daily gains. The Dow Jones Industrial gained +0.8% to 33'180.14 points and the S&P 500 ended the trading session at 4'160.68 points (+0.95%). However, the mood on the trading floor remains fragile and fluctuates between optimism and pessimism.

Asian markets remained without a clearly discernible trend on Tuesday. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index gains +0.8% and in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index trades +1.8% higher shortly before the close. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite trades around -0.5% lower.

Slightly improved economic sentiment in the euro area

According to the latest survey results of the German financial market analysis company Sentix, the sentiment of investors surveyed regarding the economic development in the eurozone brightened in June for the first time after three consecutive declines. The economic barometer improved by +6.8 points to -15.8 points, thus breaking away from the two-year low reached in May. According to Sentix, there are signs of stabilization, but the euro area economy remains in a downturn. This is due to the late effects of the pandemic and the repercussions of the war in Ukraine.

Australia's central bank with second interest rate hike

The Australian central bank raised its key interest rate for the second time since the corona crisis. The renewed tightening by 50 basis points to +0.85% surprised most analysts, as the consensus had predominantly expected a more moderate rate hike by a quarter of a percentage point.

India's central bank also raises rates

The Reserve Bank of India tightened its key interest rate by 50 basis points to +4.9% on Wednesday, as expected. The second hike within two months is intended to counter persistently high inflation.

US trade deficit shrunk at a high level

The US trade deficit narrowed in April, albeit from a record high the month before. The deficit last stood at USD 87.1 billion compared with USD 107.7 billion in March. Analysts had expected a decline to USD 89.5 billion. This was due not only to a +3.5% increase in exports, but also to lower imports (-3.4%).

Economic Indicators June 8

MEZ Country Indicator Last period
07:45 SZ Unemplomyent Rate (May) 2.2%
08:00 GE Industrial Production (April, m/m) -3.9%
11:00 EZ GDP Q1 (Revision, q/q) +0.3%


Earnings Calender June 8

Country Company Period
AUT Voestalpine Annual
ESP Inditex Q1
FR Pernod Ricard Capital Markets Day
US Spotify Investor Day


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Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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