No clear result is expected after the polls close in the US. Both camps can still hope, but it can be anticipated that the landslide victory hoped for by the Democrats will not materialize. Although (as of 07:00 CEST) the Democratic challenger Joe Biden can (according to the preliminary results) win the important state of Arizona, US President Donald Trump seems to win the swing states Florida and Ohio. The state of Pennsylvania could now be decisive. But since the processing could only be started on election day, the counting of postal votes might take a long time. According to initial indications, Trump is also ahead in Pennsylvania.
The race for the Senate also remains tight and open at the moment. Current status: 45 for the Republicans and 44 seats for the Democrats (majority from 50). In the House of Representatives, the current state of affairs is: 156 for the Democrats and 155 for the Republicans (majority from 218).
Bloomberg estimates that between 142 million and 165 million votes were cast in this election, which is a new record. In view of the corona pandemic, around 100 million Americans have already used their voting rights in advance of the election date, either by letter or in pre-opened polling stations. This corresponds to more than 70 % of the total turnout at the last election in 2016. According to surveys and expert opinions, the Democrats in particular should benefit from the high turnout. According to initial findings, this expectation does not seem to materialize.
On the Asian stock exchanges and the futures markets, the initial reactions are positive, despite the fact that the initial situation remains unclear. Looking at the short-term development of US government bond yields and technology stocks, the markets currently seem to anticipate a victory for President Trump. In Tokyo, the Nikkei Index, which comprises 225 stocks, is trading around +2% higher, while no clear trend is apparent on China's stock exchanges.
|ca. 05:00||US||Earliest that the media can declare if there is a President-elect.|
|09:15||SP||IHS Markit Composite PMI (October, final)||44.3|
|09:45||IT||IHS Markit Composite PMI (October, final)||50.4|
|09:50||FR||IHS Markit Composite PMI (October, final)||47.3|
|09:55||GE||IHS Markit Composite PMI (October, final)||54.5|
|10:00||EZ||IHS Markit Composite PMI (October, final)||49.4|
|10:30||UK||IHS Markit Composite PMI (October, final)||52.9|
|14:15||US||ADP Employment private sector (October)||+749,000|
|14:30||US||Trade Balance (September)||-USD 67.1bn|
|15:45||US||IHS Markit Composite PMI (October, final)||55.5|
|16:00||US||ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (October)||57.8|
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