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LGT Navigator: Outlook for longer-lasting loose monetary policy supports stock picking

September 7, 2021

At the beginning of the week, the stock markets were in a buoyant mood. While there was a lack of new impetus from Wall Street due to the Labor Day holiday, many investors seem to assume that the most important central banks, above all the Fed, will maintain their expansive pace for a longer period of time against the backdrop of the recent weak employment growth in the US and the continuing uncertainty about the further course of the pandemic. The focus will now be on the ECB's interest rate decision on Thursday.

Outlook for longer-lasting loose monetary policy supports stock picking

Europe's stock markets recovered at the beginning of the week after the price setbacks of last Friday. The EuroStoxx 50 closed +1.05% higher at 4'246.13 points. Thus, the European benchmark index is also back on course to its recent long-term high of 4'251 points. The recovery was driven by demand in the technology sector. While the latest survey data from Sentix on the economic outlook for the euro countries was disappointing, the mood was upbeat. The focus is now on the ECB's decision on the direction of monetary policy on Thursday and the Beige Book of the Federal Reserve, which will be published on Wednesday evening.

In Asia, the friendly trend on the stock markets continued Tuesday. New data on China's foreign trade, which was significantly better than expected in August, had a positive effect. Chinese exports increased by +25.6% year-on-year in US dollar terms (consensus +17.1%) and imports rose by around +30%. 

Sentix economic outlook for the eurozone deteriorates further

The monthly economic indicator published by the Frankfurt-based financial market analysis company Sentix declined by 2.6 points month-on-month to 19.6 points in September. The barometer thus reached its lowest level since April. Sentix commented that sentiment had deteriorated not only in Germany and the euro area, but also in many other regions of the world, and that the momentum of the global economy appears to be slowing.

German industry can build on solid order intake

Industrial companies in Germany recorded a +3.4% month-on-month increase in orders in July. Driven by large orders, order intake thus reached its highest level since the start of the data series in 1991. Economists, on the other hand, had forecast a decline of -0.7%. Orders from outside the eurozone showed the strongest increase, namely +15.7%. In view of the global supply bottlenecks, however, the decisive factor will be whether the industry is able to process or deliver the orders.

Climate change will significantly increase natural catastrophe losses according to Swiss Re

A recent study by Swiss reinsurer Swiss predicts that significantly more losses from natural catastrophes can be expected by 2040. During this period, Swiss Re expects insured weather-related losses in developed countries to increase by up to 63%. In individual regions or countries, such as Germany or the United Kingdom, these claims could increase by as much as 90% or even up to 120%. According to Jérôme Haegeli, Swiss Re's chief economist, this could lead to a global increase in insurance premiums for buildings of USD 150-180 billion by 2040. Overall, the premium volume in this segment could triple to up to USD 1.3 trillion, according to the study.


Economic Indicators September 7

MEZ Country Indicator Last period
07:45 SZ Unemployment Rate  3.0%
08:00 GE Industrial production (July, m/m) -1.3%
11:00 EZ ZEW Economic Outlook (September) +40.4
11:00 EZ ZEW Economic Outlook (September) +42.7
11:00 EZ GDP Q2 (Revision, q/q) +2.0%


Earnings Calender September 9

Country Company Period
GE Merck KGaA Capital Markets Day
USA Oracle Q1
USA Moderna Research & Development Day


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