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LGT Navigator: US Elections day is finally here

November 3, 2020

Now the time has finally come. Today should decide who will sit in the White House in the future and steer the fate of the United States, the world's largest economy: Trump or Biden? The starting position could hardly be more exciting and the risk of a stalemate seems high this time as well. If no effective result is reported tomorrow morning, the financial markets could be turbulent and a high degree of uncertainty and volatility must certainly be expected.

US Elections: Decision day

Scheduled course of the US presidential and congressional elections 2020

In the following we wanted to give you an overview (all times CEST) of the (from a European point of view) upcoming election night:

Tuesday, November 3
12 - 6pm: The polling stations in most US states open.

Wednesday, November 4
From 0:00am: First polling stations in the US states of Kentucky and Indiana close. 

From 1am: The US states of South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont have voted. The first polling stations are also closing in Georgia, New Hampshire, Indiana, Kentucky and especially in Florida. 

From 1:30am: The polling stations in West Virginia and the two swing states of North Carolina and Ohio close. The Ohio results are another highlight of election night. In many cases, the rule was: Whoever wins Ohio also moves into the White House. The last candidate to win the presidential election despite a defeat in Ohio was John F. Kennedy. 

From 2am: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee and Washington D.C. voted. Of crucial importance now could be the available results from the Swing States of Florida, Maine and Pennsylvania, which could possibly show a clear tendency for election victory. In addition, the election will end in some polling stations in North Dakota, Michigan, Kansas, South Dakota and Texas. 

Starting at 2:30am, polling stations will be closed in the state of Arkansas. 

From 3am: The 2020 presidential election is now over in Colorado, Louisiana, New Mexico, New York and Wyoming. And in the swing states of Arizona and Michigan the polling stations will be closed. The election should also be over in Minnesota, Nebraska, Texas, Wisconsin, Kansas and South Dakota. 

After 4am: The polling stations in Montana and Utah and some polling stations in Idaho and Oregon will close. The election is also over in the two swing states of Iowa and Nevada. 

Starting at 5am: The 2020 presidential election is approaching its finale. In the US states of California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon and Washington, polling stations are closing. Important: from this time on, normally the big US media houses are allowed to announce a winner, because only the votes from the US state of Alaska are missing. 

From 6am: While polling stations are already closed everywhere else in America, the 2020 presidential election is now also over in Alaska.

From 7am: All polling stations in the US are now closed. At this time, the two opponents would normally be on the phone to each other and, if necessary, one side would concede defeat before the other side would announce victory. 

What happens after election day? 

November 6: Deadline for letter votes from Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

November 8: Deadline for mail ballots from West Virginia.

November 9: Deadline for mail ballots from Iowa.

November 10: Deadline for mail ballots from Minnesota, Mississippi, Nevada, New Jersey and New York.

November 13: Deadline for mail ballots from Ohio and Maryland.

November 17: Deadline for mail ballots from Illinois.

November 20: Deadline for California postal votes.

December 8: Deadline for the “safe harbor“ period under the US Electoral Counting Act, during which the states must finally settle all controversies over the selection of their electoral college voters.

December 14: The Electoral College voters meet and elect the President and Vice President. 

January 6, 2021: The votes of the electoral college are counted and the official results of the 2020 US election are announced or certified. 

January 20, 2021: Day of the inauguration of the president in Washington, D.C.

Biden remains ahead in the last polls ­stock markets up

On the stock exchanges in Europe and on Wall Street, share prices rose, in some cases sharply, before the US elections that begin today and they recovered from the losses recorded in the previous week. The Dow Jones Industrial closed with a daily gain of +1.6% at 26 925.05 points and the market-wide S&P 500 rose by +1.23% to 3 310.24 points. In the last polls before the election, the Democratic candidate Joe Biden continues to lead. It will also be decisive whether the Democrats succeed in regaining control of the Senate after six years. On the Asian stock markets, too, most indices rose, in some cases significantly. Meanwhile, Australia's central bank lowered its key interest rate to a historic low of +0.1%.

American industry sends signals of strength

The recovery in the US industrial sector strengthened further in October. The highly regarded ISM purchasing managers' index (PMI) climbed more strongly than economists had expected, from 55.4 points in September to 59.3 points (consensus 56.0). In April, the barometer, which is highly regarded because of its high correlation with US economic growth, had slumped to a record low of 41.5 points as a result of the corona crisis. According to the industry association Institute for Supply Management, solid incoming orders in particular signal the regained strength of the companies surveyed.

Europe's industrial sector also continues to recover

The purchasing managers' index calculated twice a month by the London-based IHS Markit Institute also showed a brightening mood for European industry. In October, the PMI rose by 1.1 points to 54.8 points, the highest level in around two years.

 

 

Economic Indicators November 4

MEZ Country Indicator Last
ca. 05:00 US Earliest that the media can declare if there is a President-elect.
09:15 SP IHS Markit Composite PMI (October, final) 44.3
09:45 IT IHS Markit Composite PMI (October, final) 50.4
09:50 FR IHS Markit Composite PMI (October, final) 47.3
09:55 GE IHS Markit Composite PMI (October, final) 54.5
10:00 EZ IHS Markit Composite PMI (October, final) 49.4
10:30 UK IHS Markit Composite PMI (October, final) 52.9
14:15 US ADP Employment private sector (October) +749,000
14:30 US Trade Balance (September) -USD 67.1bn
15:45 US IHS Markit Composite PMI (October, final) 55.5
16:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (October) 57.8

Earnings Calendar November 3

Country Corporate Period
SZ Adecco Q3
SZ Dufry Q3
GE Bayer Q3
GE Hugo Boss Q3
FR BNP Paribas Q3

 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi, +41 44 250 78 59, E-Mail: lgt.navigator@lgt.com
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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