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LGT Navigator: US labor market data, Powell speech and China in focus

November 30, 2022

After a weak start to the week, stock prices on Wall Street and in Asia stepped on the spot for the most part on Tuesday. Under pressure yesterday were especially technology stocks. Today, the latest data on inflation in the euro area and the labor market data from ADP from the US are in the spotlight. In the focus is also a speech scheduled for today by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the regular economic report of the Fed, the Beige Book.

US labor market data, Powell speech and China in focus

On the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones Industrial closed yesterday at 33,852.53 points virtually unchanged from the previous day's close. The S&P 500 fell by -0.16% to 3,957.63 points. On the Nasdaq technology exchange, the indices fell by about -0.75%. The shares of Apple, for example, lost a good -2%. While the situation in China around the zero-covid policy remains uncertain, the markets are now looking eagerly to a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Investors are hoping for indications of a possibly more moderate pace regarding further interest rate tightening. Meanwhile, the yield of the ten-year Treasury bond is quoted at 3.76% slightly higher than at the beginning of the week.

On Asia's stock markets, the indices rose on Wednesday predominantly. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index trades around +0.2% higher and in Shanghai, the Composite Index also gains about +0.2%. Latest data on industrial production in China fell short of expectations - production fell to the lowest level since April 2022. However, the focus is mainly on the pandemic. China's health authority announced measures Tuesday to promote vaccination of the elderly.

Inflation dims US consumer sentiment and Xmas shopping prospects

The Conference Board's consumer confidence barometer fell to 100.2 points in November from 102.2 in October, the lowest level since July. Continued high inflation and economic uncertainty could negatively impact holiday shopping, it said. In addition, inflation expectations rose to their highest level since July, with both gas and food prices cited as the main reasons.

Economic sentiment in the eurozone brightens surprisingly significantly

The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) improved more strongly than expected by one point to 93.7 points in November, compared with the previous month. Economists had expected a reading of 93.2 points. However, the indicator is still well below the long-term average. Sentiment brightened in particular in the service sector and among consumers. Morale continues to be burdened by high energy prices and ongoing supply chain problems.

Minimally lower inflation in Germany

German consumer price inflation weakened slightly in November. Compared with the same month a year earlier, the cost of living increased by +10.0% on average. In October, the inflation rate was still +10.4%.

Swiss economy growing only slowly

Switzerland's gross domestic product grew by +0.2% quarter-on-quarter from June to September, as reported by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco). Consumption remained stable in the period, but developments in construction and industry had dampened economic growth.


Economic Indicators November 30

CET Country Indicator Last period
08:00 GE Import Prices (October, y/y) +29.8%
08:45 FR Consumer Prices (November, y/y) +7.1%
09:00 SZ KOF Economic Indicator (November) 90.9
09:55 GE Unemployment Rate (November) 5.5%
10:00 SZ ZEW Economic Expectations (November) -53.1
11:00 EZ Consumer Prices (November, m/m) +1.5%
11:00 EZ Consumer Prices (November, y/y) +10.6%
11:00 EZ Core Consumer Prices (November, y/y) +6.4%
11:00 IT Consumer Prices (November, y/y) +12.6%
14:15 US ADP Employment (November)  239,000
14:30 US GDP Q3 (q/q, annualised, revision) +2.6%
15:45 US Chicago PMI (November) 45.2
16:00 US Pending Home Sales (October, m/m) -10.2%

Earnings Calender November 30

Country Company Period
SZ Novartis (ESG Investor Day)
US Salesforce  Q3


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