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Markets react cautiously to steady Fed rates

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday, prompting brief declines in US stock indices. Treasury yields initially rose on the news but came back down later in the day. Wall Street recovered slightly by Wednesday’s close and the Asia-Pacific markets that were not closed for the Lunar New Year holiday made gains on Thursday. Tech earnings continue to roll in with quarterly figures from Apple and Intel due on Thursday. Additionally, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday.

Date
Author
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Reading time
5 minutes

Fed building closeup
© Shutterstock

The Fed kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% on Wednesday. Chair Jerome Powell indicated there is no urgency to adjust rates further until inflation and employment data provide clearer guidance. The central bank is currently monitoring potential impacts from US President Donald Trump's policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxes. Despite recent rate cuts, inflation remains above target, and the Fed awaits more data to confirm progress before considering additional rate adjustments.

US Fed rate decision impacts markets briefly

US stock indices experienced brief declines on Wednesday following the Fed's decision. The Dow Jones Industrial fell to a daily low before recovering, closing 0.3% lower at 44,713.52 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 also saw declines of 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively.

Individual stocks were on the move following earnings at major tech companies. Microsoft's shares dropped 4.6% in after-hour trading Wednesday after the company projected lower-than-expected growth for its Azure cloud business and reported higher-than-anticipated capital expenditures. Tesla shares increased by 4.2% in extended trading on Wednesday despite the company missing fourth-quarter earnings and revenue expectations. Meta shares gained 2.3% after the market closed following an earnings report release that beat Wall Street expectations on revenue and earnings per share.

In Amsterdam trading, ASML stock shot up 5.6% on Wednesday after reporting a surge in fourth-quarter net bookings, which suggests demand for its chipmaking tools is here to stay. The Dutch semiconductor equipment maker was under pressure early in the week because of concerns about the sustainability of AI spending due to the success of a low-cost AI model stemming from China.

Japanese and Australian stocks rise

Japanese and Australian stocks rose on Thursday, diverging from Wall Street's decline after the Fed maintained interest rates. Japan's Nikkei 225 increased by 0.1%, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.6% to its highest level since December. SoftBank Group shares fell 0.5% amid talks to invest up to USD 25 billion in OpenAI. Most Asia-Pacific markets, including those in Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and China, were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Germany cuts GDP growth forecast, consumer sentiment falls

Germany's government revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast down to 0.3% on Wednesday, from a previous estimate of 1.1%. Economy Minister Robert Habeck attributed the downgrade to stagnation, geopolitical uncertainties, and the incomplete implementation of growth initiatives. Europe's largest economy contracted by 0.2%, following a 0.3% decline in 2023. Separately, consumer sentiment in Germany declined in January, according to the GfK Consumer Climate survey released on Wednesday. The index is forecast to drop to -22.4 points in February, down from -21.4 points in January. The survey highlights ongoing economic pessimism and rising inflation as key factors affecting consumer confidence.

Germany’s DAX nevertheless led European gains on Wednesday, climbing 1% to 21,637.53 points. The Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.7%, while France’s CAC 40 lagged, sliding 0.3%. The Swiss Market Index increased by 0.6%.

Bank of Canada cuts rates, ends tightening

The Bank of Canada reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3% on Wednesday, while announcing the end of quantitative tightening. The Bank will resume asset purchases in March to stabilise its balance sheet. Despite a soft labour market and trade uncertainties, the Bank projects GDP growth to strengthen to 1.8% in 2025, with inflation remaining near 2%.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from ABB, Apple, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, Caterpillar, Comcast, Deutsche Bank, Intel, KLA, Marsh & McLennan, Mastercard, Nokia, Nordea Bank, Roche, Sanofi, Shell, STMicroelectronics, Thermo Fisher Scientific, United Parcel Service, and Visa.

Economic data in focus: French gross domestic product (07:30), Swiss trade balance (08:00), German gross domestic product (10:00), Italian gross domestic product (10:00), euro-area gross domestic product (11:00), European Central Bank interest rate decision (14:15), US gross domestic product (14:30), US weekly initial jobless claims (14:30).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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