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Trump’s trade poker sends markets on a rollercoaster

US stock markets surged on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on some tariffs, leading to a massive rally on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its largest gain since March 2020, while the S&P 500 recorded its biggest one-day increase since 2008. At the same time, the trade war between the US and China escalated further. Investors will now focus on the upcoming negotiations and the potential long-term impact on global trade dynamics. Besides trade war headlines, today’s focus will be on the latest US inflation data.

  • Date
  • Author Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
  • Reading time 5 minutes

Rollercoaster
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 7.9% closing at 40,608.45 points, following US President Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause and reduction to 10% on certain tariffs for most US trade partners. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also saw significant gains, rising 9.5% and 12.2%, respectively, marking their largest single-day increases since 2008 and 2001. Yesterday’s trading session was marked by heavy volumes and substantial rebounds in stocks previously impacted by trade tensions.

This astonishing development follows trading sessions over the course of the previous four days that saw the S&P 500 suffering a 12% loss, a decline not seen since the pandemic. The Dow lost more than 4500 points during the four-day stretch, while the Nasdaq was down more than 13%.

US-China trade war escalates further

On the other hand, the tariff conflict between the United States and China intensified again, increasing the odds of slower economic growth, or even a recession, higher inflation and lower corporate profits, and sparking a sharp sell-off on stock markets. Yesterday, Beijing announced counter-tariffs in response to further US tariffs, bringing China’s total tariffs on all US imports now to 84%, taking effect today. In the following US President Trump doubled down with an increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%! The escalation will certainly severely impact trade between the world’s two largest economies.

Asia-Pacific markets surge after Trump tariff pause

Asian markets saw substantial gains on Thursday, led by Japan’s Nikkei 225 which jumped 8.3%, following US President Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on higher tariffs on all nations except China, and the rally on Wall Street. South Korea's Kospi index surged 5.4%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 4.7%. Meanwhile, China's CSI 300 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index increased by 1% and 1.9%, respectively.

China's consumer price index declined by 0.1% year-on-year in March, following a 0.7% drop in February, according to data released by the National Statistics Bureau on Thursday. Producer prices also saw a significant decrease, falling 2.5% year-on-year, marking the largest contraction since November 2024. Core inflation, excluding food and fuel prices, rose by 0.5%, recovering from a 0.1% drop in February.

EU imposes tariffs on US goods

The European Union approved its first set of retaliatory tariffs on US imports on Wednesday, responding to the 25% duties imposed by the US on steel and aluminium. The European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, announced that the new tariffs will begin on 15 April, targeting a range of goods including poultry, grains, clothing, and metals. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasised the EU's preference for a negotiated solution with the US, while Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic highlighted the significant economic impact of the US tariffs on European exports.

European stocks plunge as tariffs hit

European stocks fell sharply on Wednesday. The EuroStoxx 50 shed 3.2% closing at 4622.14 points. Major sectors, including healthcare and oil and gas, saw significant losses, dropping 6% and 5%, respectively. The decline was exacerbated by China's announcement of 84% retaliatory tariffs on US imports. Key indices such as Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40, also recorded substantial losses, falling 3% and 3.3%, respectively.

Swiss equities tumbled on Wednesday afternoon as the US-China trade war escalated. The Swiss Market Index (SMI) dropped 4.2% to 10'887.73 points, its largest fall since March 2020, and the Volatility Index (VSMI) surged 53%, reflecting heightened market uncertainty.

German bonds rise as US Treasurys sell off

US Treasurys sold off on Wednesday as President Donald Trump’s new tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures triggered market turmoil, pushing the US ten-year Treasury yield temporarily up 12 basis points to 4.38% - currently back at 4.29%. In contrast, yields on German two-year bunds dropped about 12 basis points, as investors sought safety in short-dated European bonds. Economists noted that Germany is benefiting from a broader flight to quality, with its ten-year bund yields falling two basis points. This shift reflects growing concerns over US economic stability and inflationary pressures.

Fed minutes reveal internal debate on QT

Federal Reserve minutes released yesterday showed that while the decision to slow the balance sheet drawdown had broad support, some officials opposed it. The near halt in quantitative tightening (QT) was driven by concerns over market liquidity amid debt ceiling uncertainties. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were among those advocating for a steady pace of QT. The Fed has reduced the cap on Treasury securities runoff to USD 5 billion per month, maintaining the mortgage bond cap at USD 35 billion.

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: US Consumer Price Index and weekly initial jobless claims (14:30).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.