Market View La nostra visione dei mercati

Nelle nostre pubblicazioni e nei nostri video affrontiamo quotidianamente argomenti rilevanti per il mercato. I nostri esperti spiegano in modo semplice e comprensibile il contesto, gli effetti e le raccomandazioni per gli investitori. Se vi iscrivete alla nostra newsletter, vi informeremo non appena avremo pubblicato un nuovo articolo sul mercato.

The rate of consumer price increases in Germany plummeted in September to its lowest level in two years. However, the positive sentiment from slower price gains was largely offset by new forecasts that show Europe’s largest economy shrinking over the 2023 full year.

Stocks markets made an attempt at stabilization mid-week after Wall Street suffered major losses on Tuesday. Major stock indices in Europe and Asia were mixed with gains and losses mostly mild. The looming government shutdown in the US remained in focus for investors while a one-year high in...

Consumer confidence in the US dropped to a four-month low in September while another indicator of economic expectations released Tuesday signalled the US economy is likely to fall into recession. Market sentiment continued to sour mid-week, pressured by the looming US government shutdown. If...

German business morale fell again in September, the fifth month of deteriorating sentiment data out of Europe’s largest economy. It’s the latest signal that the euro area is going through a difficult third quarter with the economy weakening while inflation remains high. Markets reacted...

Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) released at the end of the week showed flatlining US economic activity while business activity in Europe contracted again in September. Markets nevertheless managed to stabilize to end the week, despite US equity funds suffering their largest outflows in four...

The major central banks, except for the Japanese and Chinese central banks, now seem to have reached the end of the tightening cycle. While the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England as well as the Swiss National Bank have already taken at least a pause, the central banks in Norway and Sweden...

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has left its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%, as expected by the majority of the capital markets. However, Fed Chairman Powell indicated that interest rates will remain at a high level for a longer period and that another rate hike can be expected in the...

The People's Bank of China (PBoC) today left the key interest rates for one-year and five-year loans unchanged in September, after which the stock markets in Asia came under pressure across the board. All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve (Fed), which will announce its highly anticipated...

In the run-up to the interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve (Fed) in midweek, stock market investors were cautious at the beginning of the week. In addition, rising oil prices heightened inflation concerns. On the US stock exchanges, indices remained virtually unchanged at the start of...

The upcoming decision by the US central bank (Fed) will provide clarity on Wednesday evening regarding the Fed's monetary policy stance and economic assessment. After the European Central Bank (ECB), for its part, once again tightened the interest rate screw, the ECB Vice President hinted that...

Like the two characters waiting for Godot in Samuel Beckett’s play, many market participants have been waiting for a recession in the United States, which may never come. Many experts assumed that US economic growth would be much weaker this year than it has been so far. And most of them have...

Risks to economic growth dynamics have increased, triggering a downgrade of emerging markets against an upgrade of the more insulated US stock market, now both "Neutral". In Fixed Income we expect the interest rate environment to remain at elevated levels for longer. In our current House View...

Global growth weakness is likely to continue well into autumn, but the US economy has shown remarkable resilience. The stabilisation of the macroeconomic environment has led us to increase the global equity allocation to “Neutral”. On a tactical basis, we are starting to take profits in gold...

As the second quarter of 2023 draws to a close, the longest day of the year is already behind us in the northern hemisphere. For investors, the question now is whether the third quarter will follow on seamlessly from the first two. In the coming weeks, capital markets and investors will have to...

The political dispute over raising the debt ceiling in the US has been at the centre of attention on the financial markets in recent weeks. With the agreement now reached to raise the debt ceiling for two years, which still has to be approved by parliament, the risk of a default by the world’s...

At a global level, we do not expect a recession this year, but economic growth will remain below potential. Developments across the regions are mixed. On this backdrop, we maintain our defensive investment strategy across all asset classes, but the underweight in equities is reduced by building...

The Federal Reserve is considering to end the monetary tightening cycle, but it has no intention to cut interest rates - markets take a different view. Equity investors are currently better compensated in Europe than in the US, therefore we upgrade European equities to “neutral”. The banking...

Any rate cut fantasies seem to have fizzled out and investors have a more realistic view of the Federal Reserve's rate path again. Within the equity quota, we recommend a defensive positioning and prefer the "rest of the world" to the US. After the correction, we are raising gold in the...

The main asset classes had a brilliant start to the new year, yet investors continue to hold high levels of liquidity. In the fixed income space, we consider short-duration investment grade credit strategies to be particularly attractive. We see re-rating potential for the banking sector and...

In a still challenging market environment, patience is required, and investors should stay the course. On the equity side we remain defensively positioned and in the fixed income area we expect positive returns again. In the current market environment, portfolio components with a low...

China’s economy faces multiple challenges ranging from problems in the housing and banking sectors, in addition to overall economic performance. Actions taken by the authorities range from traditional monetary easing to macroprudential measures, including adjustments to mortgage and deposit...

Subordinated bank bonds are once again in the spotlight after Zürcher Kantonalbank skipped a call option. The decision led to price losses in the Swiss franc denominated AT1 segment.

Throughout the past months, the shadow banking system and real estate sector in China became a topic of great concern. This is illustrated by the debt crisis at Country Garden - China’s largest property developer in 2022 - and missed payments at Zhongrong International Trust, one of China’s...

Technological progress is likely to mitigate the effects of a shrinking labour force in the G7 countries. In addition, artificial intelligence is already doing a good job of managing the flood of information and data.

The dust has settled on the US debt ceiling dispute. Investors have turned their attention elsewhere and appear to be oblivious to the fact that the issue will come up again in the next 18 to 24 months. Over the next few years, the US national debt will rise from over 32.5 trillion US dollars...

The year 2023 holds many challenges for investors. By far the biggest is likely to be the divergence between the real economy and equity markets.

US monetary authorities will meet next week for the last time before the summer recess. The Fed's tightening cycle is likely to come to an end, but we do not see any potential for rate cuts.

This week marks the start of the second quarter earnings season in the US. The financial statements will show how companies are doing in the current difficult market environment. We expect volatility to increase.

In the second quarter, probably no other topic dominated stock markets as much as "artificial intelligence" (AI). We have already addressed this topic twice in this publication over the past few months, but we still think it makes sense to provide an assessment at the start of the second half...

Before the outbreak of the corona crisis, the leading central banks were confronted with deflationary tendencies. Now market participants have to adjust to an environment that will be characterised by higher price pressure. Not all companies will succeed in this adjustment.

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Market View La nostra visione dei mercati

German inflation slows rapidly, economy expected to contract this year

Stocks stabilize, but US government shutdown and oil spike cause uncertainty

US consumer confidence falls to four-month low

German business sentiment weakens again

US business activity stalls as Europe continues contraction

Monetary policy seems to have reached the interest rate peak in many places

Fed pauses, but remains hawkish

China's central bank keeps benchmark loan rates unchanged

Caution ahead of important monetary policy decisions

The Federal Reserve takes center stage this week

October 2023

September 2023

August 2023

July 2023

June 2023

May 2023

April 2023

Central banks have not yet reached their targets

February 2023

January 2023

Diagnosing the Chinese growth slump

AT1 segment under pressure after latest developments in Swiss bank bonds

Dissecting shadow banking and real estate in China

Holiday greetings from Claude

One trillion US dollars

Disinflationary headwinds?

Raise - pause - skip

Reporting time

AI what next?

Long-term adaptation

Capital Market Assumptions

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