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SNB decision, Trump-Xi summit take centre stage

This week, the Swiss National Bank’s interest rate decision and monetary policy assessment take centre stage on Thursday, while US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are also due to meet at the White House on the same day, with tariffs, rare-earth exports and technology controls expected to top the agenda. Purchasing Managers’ Indices on Wednesday provide insights into economic activity in several of the world's largest economies. Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index on Thursday offers a further gauge of conditions in Europe’s largest economy. Japanese markets are closed from Monday through Wednesday for public holidays, while Chinese markets are closed on Friday for the Mid-Autumn Festival.

  • Data
  • Autore Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
  • Tempo di lettura 5 minuto

US China trade negotiations
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China kept its one-year and five-year loan prime rates at 3% and 3.5%, respectively, for a 16th consecutive month on Sunday. Scope for further monetary easing has narrowed after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week and signalled further increases, widening the yield advantage of US government bonds over Chinese debt. Weak credit demand, pressure on Chinese banks’ profitability and a slowing property sector are also constraining policymakers, although a sharper economic slowdown could revive the case for another cut. Asian equity markets advanced on Monday, led by South Korea’s KOSPI, which gained 1.5% as Samsung Electronics rose 4%. China’s CSI 300 increased by around 0.4%, respectively, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.6%, supported by encouraging signals from US-China trade talks over the weekend.

Oil falls on diplomacy hopes

Oil prices extended last week’s decline, with Brent crude oil futures falling 1.7% to USD 102.10 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures slipping 1.8% to USD 94.33 per barrel. Prospects for US-Iran diplomacy eased concerns over disrupted Saudi supply after US President Trump said he could meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the UN General Assembly this week. However, Houthi missile and drone attacks targeting Riyadh on Saturday highlighted ongoing risks to Saudi energy infrastructure and export routes. Gold fell 0.5% to around USD 4360 per ounce. The US Dollar Index edged up 0.1% to 100.34, while bitcoin gained 1.4% to around USD 81,600.

US stocks mixed as tech advances

US equities ended mixed on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.2% to 51,682.64 points, while the S&P 500 added 0.2% to 7650.50 points and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7% to 29,644.17 points. Lower oil prices supported sentiment despite rising US Treasury yields, while the Nasdaq 100 posted a 0.9% weekly gain. Chipmakers including Sandisk, Lam Research and Seagate Technology climbed by up to 11% after Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang forecast a doubling in chip sales next year. Crypto-linked Strategy and Coinbase also rallied after the SEC extended an exemption allowing tokenised-share trading.

German producer-price inflation accelerates

German industrial producer prices rose 4.6% year on year in August, accelerating from July and increasing 1.1% on the month, Destatis reported on Friday. Energy prices climbed 8.3%, driven by a 40.5% surge in mineral-oil products amid the conflict in Iran and the Middle East, while intermediate goods became 6.1% more expensive. European stock indices closed lower on Friday, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.4%, Germany’s DAX declining 1.6%, France’s CAC 40 falling 1.5% and the Swiss Market Index losing 1.2%.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: Bundesbank monthly report (12:00).

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