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Long Treasury yield reaches highest since 2004

The yield on 30-year US Treasuries climbed on Thursday to a level last seen in 2004, as resilient business activity and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) members revived expectations of further rate increases. US stocks finished the session mixed, while most Asian equity markets fell on Friday despite a two-month extension of the US-China trade truce agreed by US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meanwhile left its key interest rate unchanged.

  • Date
  • Auteur Amira Scherz, Investment Writer
  • Temps de lecture 5 minutes

US Federal Reserve
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The US 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.4% on Thursday, its highest level since 2004, while the ten-year yield remained close to its 2007 peak. Robust business activity, a stronger US dollar and hawkish comments from Fed Governor Michael Barr reinforced inflation and interest-rate concerns. Government interest costs reached a record 3.3% of GDP in the second quarter, raising concerns that still-higher yields may be needed to prompt greater fiscal discipline. In current trading, Brent crude oil futures fell 0.9% to USD 105.66 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures declined 1.6% to USD 93.05 per barrel. Gold slipped 0.3% to around USD 4260 per ounce, while bitcoin rose 0.2% to around USD 84,100.

Asian shares slip as bond yields rise

Asian equities mostly declined on Friday as a global bond sell-off pushed borrowing costs higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.5% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.6%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.3% as technology shares recovered and a weaker yen supported exporters. India’s Nifty 50 was little changed. US President Trump and Chinese President Xi agreed on Thursday to extend their trade truce by two months, but left key disputes unresolved.

US stocks mixed as dollar holds firm

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3% to 51,349.98 points on Thursday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 finished little changed at 7704.13 and 30,478.86 points, respectively. The Russell 2000 slipped 0.1% to 2835.57 points on Thursday. Oil prices rose after an Iranian warning of a wider Middle East conflict, lifting bond yields and fuelling inflation concerns. Higher yields also supported the US Dollar Index, which held near a two-month high at 101.26 on Friday. That short-term US dollar strength contrasts with Warren Buffett’s warning that persistent US deficits could weaken the currency over time. Facebook parent Meta Platforms gained 4.5% on enthusiasm for its AI assistant and new partnerships, while Oracle fell 3.5% amid reported difficulties at a New Mexico data-centre project.

Swiss franc weakens after SNB decision

The Swiss franc weakened on Thursday after the SNB left its policy rate unchanged at 0%, with USDCHF rising to CHF 0.8278 from CHF 0.8241 in the morning, its highest level in about a year. The euro climbed to CHF 0.9417 from CHF 0.9383, while remaining broadly steady against the US dollar at 1.1376. Higher oil prices and stronger-than-expected US economic data supported the greenback, while investors interpreted the SNB’s communication as signalling greater tolerance for two-way currency movements.

German business confidence improves for fifth month

Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index increased for a fifth consecutive month to 89.9 points in September from 88.8 in August, reaching its highest level since May 2023 and surpassing expectations on Thursday. Companies reported better current conditions and a more favourable outlook, while confidence rose in manufacturing, trade and services but remained broadly unchanged in construction. Ifo forecasts German gross domestic product growth of 1.4% in 2026, although economists expect only a moderate recovery amid weak investment, elevated energy costs and unresolved structural challenges.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: US durable goods orders (14:30) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (16:00).

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