Market view How we see the markets

Stock markets in the US and Europe declined on Thursday as higher oil prices and post-earnings losses in Alphabet and Tesla weakened sentiment. The European Central Bank (ECB) held rates unchanged as it assessed the inflationary effects of the Middle East conflict. Friday starts off with equity...

The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its monetary policy decision today, facing a looming threat of persistent inflation as geopolitical tensions increase. Markets traded cautiously midweek as the Iran war and AI investments remain the main themes shaping equity markets. In the face of...

A sharp recovery in semiconductor shares drove US equities higher on Tuesday as investors positioned for quarterly reports from Alphabet and Tesla due on Wednesday. Asian trading was mixed on Wednesday, with a strong advance in Korea’s Kospi contrasting with losses in Hong Kong and modest...

A modest pullback in oil prices on Tuesday supported a strong rebound in Asian equities as markets weighed tentative signs of renewed diplomacy between the US and Iran against continuing risks to energy supplies. US stocks had ended mostly lower on Monday, while Japanese, South Korean and...

In addition to monitoring the situation in the Middle East, investors will focus on the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision and the first major technology earnings of the second-quarter reporting season this week. The ECB announces its policy decision on Thursday. Against a backdrop...

A pullback in technology and semiconductor shares gathered pace on Friday, weighing heavily on Asian bourses as concerns over elevated AI investment coincided with mounting geopolitical risks. US stocks had already finished lower on Thursday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq suffering the steepest...

A sharp retreat in semiconductor shares pushed Asian equities lower on Thursday, with South Korea’s Kospi suffering particularly heavy losses. Wall Street had ended Wednesday mixed, as gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 contrasted with a modest decline in the Nasdaq-100...

Cooling US inflation supported risk appetite, helping Wall Street finish higher on Tuesday despite renewed conflict in the Middle East. Asian equities also gained on Wednesday, led by a technology-driven surge in South Korea, even as disappointing Chinese GDP growth and a deepening investment...

A renewed jump in crude prices following Washington’s decision to restore its blockade of Iranian shipping heightened inflation concerns on Monday and weighed on Wall Street, particularly technology shares. European equities finished broadly flat, while most Asian markets recovered from early...

Renewed fighting between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude prices sharply higher on Monday, weighing on risk sentiment in Asia as investors assessed the risk of another energy-driven inflation shock. Asian equities were broadly lower, led by a steep drop in South Korea...

Markets are entering the second half of the year with a more supportive growth-in­flation mix, even as geopolitical risks remain elevated. Earlier declines in energy prices have helped inflation retreat meaningfully, restoring some confidence among consum­ers and businesses. The US economy...

Sometimes the most important market signal is not where the pressure is greatest, but where resilience proves strongest. As the first half of 2026 draws to a close, the global economy has absorbed the energy shock better than many feared. The US economy in particular continues to show...

Generally speaking, the price of oil is primarily driven by the global economy and the resulting demand for oil; however, the impact of market disruptions is significantly greater when supply becomes the determining factor. This is currently the case due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of...

With the conflict in the Middle East and the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the markets are facing a major macroeconomic shock, yet they have so far reacted with surprising calm. Momentum remains intact, and falling prices continue to be used as an opportunity to "buy the dip"...

Over the past weeks, the world has become more uncertain again. The conflict with Iran and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil and gas prices sharply higher. This hits regions unevenly: while the United States is cushioned by its energy self sufficiency, Europe is...

Sometimes a few data points are enough to flip sentiment. After a tough industrial year in 2025, the mood was subdued in many aspects: supply chain shifts, tariff disputes, and concerns about an economic dip after the AI investment boom weighed on markets. Now, the latest sentiment indicators -...

At the start of 2026, the global economy is on firmer footing than many had anticipated a year ago. Recession fears have not materialised, with consumption and investment - particularly in the United States - proving resilient. Easing inflation pressures, the prospect of more supportive...

Before the year comes to an end, we would like to take the opportunity to highlight our monthly strategic assessment. In our view, economic growth is set to slow but remain positive, while inflation has likely peaked at lower than feared levels and financial conditions are still supportive.

US economic resilience reduced expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, while the euro area reached its inflation target and Switzerland continued to face weak growth and low inflation. Global equities consolidated after recent gains, but Q3 earnings remained solid and emerging markets...

Global markets continue to impress with their resilience, defying many predictions of a sharp slowdown, even in the notorious autumn months. Consumption in the US economy - the world’s economic powerhouse - is cushioning the impact of tariffs and global uncertainties. While some cracks are...