You can find some insights from our recently published Global Outlook 2026 here:
Macroeconomic outlook
For 2026, we anticipate a variety of risk factors and structural changes that will broaden the spectrum of potential economic and market outcomes. Nevertheless, our outlook stays positive.
Our main macroeconomic insights include:
A new capex cycle: Nationalistic industrial policies, fiscal spending, and geoeconomic fragmentation should drive a new capex cycle, benefiting diverse industries.
Accelerated growth: Outside the UK, we expect advanced-economy growth to accelerate, as trade uncertainty recedes and lower interest rates feed through.
Technology and AI: Labour markets remain structurally tight, encouraging investment in technology and AI for productivity gains and reducing labour dependency.
Stable inflation: Inflation is mostly anchored, with the US an exception due to slow tariff effects and potential policy overshooting.
Robust Asia: In Asia, domestic demand and past reforms underpin a robust outlook.
Insights from our CIO
Higher structural inflation, elevated debt and potential capital controls are reshaping the landscape. In this interview, our Global Head Investment Solutions Mika Kastenholz shares his insights on what investors should look out for this year.
