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Markets mixed as Iran peace hopes gain momentum

Oil prices eased after US President Donald Trump announced a 10‑day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and signalled the war in Iran could be nearing an end, prompting some unwinding of recent risk premia. The geopolitical progress failed to lift sentiment in equities at the end of the week, with most major Asian indices edging lower on Friday even though regional benchmarks are still on track for solid weekly gains. US stocks, by contrast, extended their record-setting rally on Thursday, while European bourses were mixed as markets digested firmer euro-area inflation and a brighter‑than‑expected UK growth reading. Gold and the US dollar were little changed late in the week, while US Treasury yields were slightly higher.

  • Date
  • Author Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
  • Reading time 5 minutes

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Oil prices declined on Thursday after US President Donald Trump said the war in Iran is likely to end soon and announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon starting later that day, fuelling expectations of reduced supply risks. Brent crude oil futures were trading around USD 98 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) around USD 93. However, the geopolitical progress wasn't enough to support equity markets at the end of the week. Asian equities slipped on Friday as investors took profits after solid gains earlier in the week, but major regional benchmarks remained on course for weekly advances. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 1.1% was still set for a 3.5% weekly rise after hitting a record high of 59,719 points on Thursday. Korea’s Kospi was trading 0.5% lower but remained on track for a 6% weekly gain. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 0.2% weaker, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 1.1% and mainland China’s CSI 300 was little changed. India’s Nifty 50 was bucking the regional trend, trading 0.3% higher.

US indices extend record run

On Thursday, US equities advanced further, with the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 rising 0.5% to 26,333.00 points and the broad S&P 500 gaining 0.3% to 7041.28 points, as both indices again surpassed the record highs set on Wednesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial added 0.2% to 48,578.72 points. Higher oil prices did little to weigh on sentiment. In macroeconomic data, US manufacturing output fell 0.1% in March, following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in February, according to Federal Reserve data released on Thursday. Factory production was 0.5% higher than a year earlier in March and expanded at a 3% annualised pace in the first quarter after contracting at a 3.2% rate in the fourth quarter, but overall industrial production declined 0.5% in March after rising 0.7% in February.

Swiss producer prices edge higher in March

Swiss producer and import prices increased by 0.2% in March from the previous month, taking the overall index to 99.6 points based on December 2025, according to data published by the Federal Statistical Office on Thursday. The gain was driven mainly by higher prices for petroleum products and, on the import side, for petroleum and natural gas, with the producer price index rising 0.1% and the import price index up 0.3%. Core supply prices excluding volatile raw materials fell 0.1% on the month. Compared with March last year, the combined price level of domestic and imported goods declined 2.7%, reflecting broad year-on-year decreases in categories such as chemical and pharmaceutical products despite the recent rebound in energy-related prices. Swiss Market Index declined 0.3% on Thursday.

Euro-area inflation accelerates in March

Eurostat reported on Thursday that annual inflation in the euro area rose to 2.6% in March from 1.9% in February, while inflation in the wider European Union increased to 2.8% from 2.1%. A year earlier, the respective rates were 2.2% and 2.5%. The main drivers of euro-area inflation were services, which contributed 1.49 percentage points, followed by energy with 0.48 percentage points, food, alcohol and tobacco with 0.45 percentage points, and non-energy industrial goods with 0.13 percentage points. The Euro Stoxx 50 was essentially flat on Thursday, edging down less than 0.1% to 5938.16 points. Germany’s DAX outperformed with a 0.4% gain to 24,154.47 points, while France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.1% to 8262.70 points.

UK growth beats forecasts but outlook darkens

UK gross domestic product expanded by 0.5% in February, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics on Thursday, far above economists’ expectations for 0.1% and following revised growth of 0.1% in January. Services and industrial production each rose 0.5% and construction output increased 1%, but economists cautioned that the figures are backward-looking given the escalation of conflict involving the US and Iran at the end of February. The International Monetary Fund now projects UK growth of 0.8% in 2026, down from a 1.3% forecast made in January, and warns Britain could face the largest growth hit from the Iran war among major economies due to its exposure to energy imports. Analysts expect higher uncertainty, tighter financial conditions and a weakening labour market to weigh on activity, while an anticipated rise in inflation from 3% in February to around 3.3% in March is seen limiting the Bank of England’s scope to cut rates, with some economists now expecting at least one rate increase this year.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: EU trade balance (11:00).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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