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China trade surplus hits record as stocks wobble

China's trade surplus rose to a new record high last year after exports in December were stronger than expected despite a sharp decline in trade with the United States. Nevertheless, Chinese equities slipped on Wednesday after regulators tightened margin financing rules, in contrast to mostly positive trading across the rest of Asia where Japan’s Nikkei 225 reached a fresh high. On Wall Street, major indices pulled back from record levels on Tuesday and bank shares came under pressure as the fourth-quarter earnings season kicked off. European stocks were broadly flat. Gold was trading around USD 4630 after reaching another all-time high and silver prices climbed above USD 90 per ounce for the first time on Wednesday, as investors reacted to expectations for further US interest rate cuts, political pressure on the Federal Reserve and heightened geopolitical tensions.

  • Data
  • Autore Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
  • Tempo di lettura 5 minuto

Strategist China
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China’s customs authority reported on Wednesday that exports in December rose 6.6% year-on-year in US dollar terms, accelerating from 5.9% in November and easily beating expectations, while imports increased 5.7% after a 7.4% rise in September last year and also exceeded forecasts. The strong end to the year pushed China’s 2025 trade surplus up 20% to a record USD 1.19 trillion, as full-year exports grew 5.5% and imports were broadly unchanged, even though shipments to the US fell 20% and imports from the country declined 14.6% amid ongoing tariff tensions. Chinese exporters have increasingly shifted toward other markets, with exports to the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations rising 12% and 11% respectively in December, while exports of rare earths jumped 32% that month and 12.9% over the full year. Nevertheless, Chinese equities reversed gains on Wednesday after regulators increased the minimum margin requirement for buying shares on credit to 100% from 80%, a measure that applies across the Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing exchanges and is aimed at tightening risk controls. The CSI 300 Index swung from a 1.2% advance into negative territory, trading about 0.5% lower.

Asia stocks mixed as Nikkei hits record

Elsewhere in Asia, stock markets were mostly trading in positive territory. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 1.6% higher to reach a new record, amid speculation that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will call a snap election, fuelling expectations for further fiscal stimulus and weakening the yen. Korea’s Kospi was up 0.7% at 4723.10 points and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 0.1% higher at 8820.60 points. Tech names in Hong Kong remained supported by strong recent IPOs, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index trading 0.4% higher. India’s Nifty 50 was little changed, trading just above 25737 points.

US stocks ease after record highs

US equities retreated from record levels on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.8% after setting a new peak at the start of the week, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also edged lower. Investors reacted cautiously to recent comments by US President Donald Trump, who called for caps on credit card interest rates, restrictions on dividends and buybacks at defence companies, and limits on institutional purchases of single-family homes, weighing particularly on Mastercard and Visa shares, which lost around 4%. The start of US banks’ reporting season saw JPMorgan slide 4.2% after its takeover of Apple credit cards from Goldman Sachs hurt fourth-quarter 2025 profit, even though management guidance for the current year exceeded average analyst projections.

US inflation eases as core CPI hits low

US core consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in December and 2.6% compared with a year earlier, matching November’s pace and marking the slowest annual core increase since March 2021, according to data released on Tuesday. Headline CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 2.7% year-on-year, broadly in line with market expectations and still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, although inflation has been gradually easing over the past year. Food prices remained a pressure point for households with a 0.7% monthly increase, while used car and truck prices fell 1.7% and airline fares dropped 0.5%, and lower gasoline prices contributed to a 2% decline in the overall energy index. The latest inflation figures followed a jobs report showing the unemployment rate moving down from a four-year high and reinforced market expectations that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged later this month.

European stocks mixed as US earnings begin

Major European equity indices ended Tuesday little changed and directionless as investors awaited the start of the US reporting season, with the Euro Stoxx 50 edging up 0.2%, while Switzerland’s SMI slipped 0.4%. Bank shares outperformed the broader market ahead of US lenders’ quarterly results. In contrast, construction and materials stocks lagged after Swiss chemicals group Sika dropped 9.5% on weaker 2025 sales hurt by currency headwinds and a soft Chinese construction market, and Lindt & Sprüngli reversed early gains to close 1.9% lower as stronger-than-forecast revenue growth was driven mainly by price increases rather than volumes.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo.

Economic data in focus: US retail sales (14:30), US Producer Price Index (14:30), US current account (14:30), US existing home sales (16:00), US Fed Beige Book (20:00).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
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