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Markets weighed down by Fed split and oil spike

Global risk sentiment deteriorated midweek as a sharply divided Federal Reserve left rates on hold and oil prices surged on escalating tensions around Iran. US equities finished mostly lower on Wednesday, while European markets also slipped and Asia-Pacific bourses traded broadly in the red on Thursday, with energy-sensitive sectors under particular pressure. The combination of elevated energy prices, persistent inflation and high-profile central bank meetings is keeping bond yields and the US dollar slightly firmer, even as investors focus on whether surging AI-related capital expenditure by major US tech groups will ultimately translate into stronger earnings growth. Attention on Thursday turns to a packed data and central bank calendar, including policy decisions by the Bank of England and European Central Bank.

Data 30 aprile 2026
Autore Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
Tempo di lettura 5 minuto

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% on Wednesday in a highly divided decision that produced four dissents, the most since 1992, as policymakers struggled to balance stubbornly elevated inflation against a cooling but still resilient labour market. Chair Jerome Powell, who is expected to hand over the leadership to chair‑elect Kevin Warsh in mid‑May, signalled he would remain on the Board of Governors until a high-profile investigation into Federal Reserve building renovations is fully completed, meaning Trump will not gain an additional board appointment in the near term. Fed officials and markets currently anticipate little change in rates for an extended period, with policymakers projecting only one further cut this year and another in 2027 to bring the policy rate closer to its estimated neutral level around 3.1%, while acknowledging considerable uncertainty around the economic outlook. The Bank of Canada also kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday, as officials weighed the inflationary impact of the Iran war and continued uncertainty over US trade policy.

Oil surges as Iran risks escalate

Oil futures jumped a combined nearly 10% on Wednesday and Thursday, with Brent crude oil futures trading around USD 113 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at about USD 109 per barrel, after reports that the US military is preparing to brief US President Donald Trump on potential action against Iran. Market fears intensified that an extended American naval blockade and stalled nuclear talks could further restrict Iranian exports. Limited storage capacity and only gradual additional supply from the United Arab Emirates following its exit from OPEC could deepen near-term tightness, even as strategic reserves and crude already in transit provide some offset. The US dollar strengthened modestly on Thursday, with the Dollar Index edging above 99. Gold prices were climbing on Thursday, trading around USD 4570 per ounce and US Treasury yields were slightly higher across the curve.

Asia markets pressured by oil surge

Asia-Pacific equities traded mostly lower on Thursday as the sharp climb in oil prices pressured sentiment. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 1.2% lower at 59,196.50 points, while Korea’s Kospi was down 0.9%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 0.3% lower and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was trading 1% in the red. Mainland China’s CSI 300 was almost unchanged, edging down 0.1%, while India’s Nifty 50 was under more pressure, falling 1.5%.

China factory growth moderates in April

In macroeconomic data out of the region, China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index edged down to 50.3 in April from 50.8 in March, remaining in expansion territory and slightly exceeding economists’ expectations of 50.1, although softer new orders signalled a loss of momentum according to data released on Wednesday. Output and overall new orders, including export orders which rose above 50 for the first time in around two years, continue to support the industrial sector, even as domestic demand appears fragile and input costs are lifted by higher oil prices linked to Middle East tensions. A separate private survey by S&P Global painted a stronger picture for factories, with its manufacturing PMI climbing to 52.2, the highest since December 2020, helped by solid demand, efficiency gains and new product launches, while the figures come as Beijing prepares for a summit between President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in May focused on trade and tariffs.

US stocks fall, tech capex rises

US equities closed mostly lower on Wednesday as diminishing prospects of imminent interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve curbed risk appetite. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% to 48,861.81 points and the broad S&P 500 inched 0.04% lower to 7135.95 points, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6% to 27,186.98 points. After the bell, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft all reported quarterly results that exceeded analysts’ forecasts on Wednesday, but capex figures remained in focus. Google parent company Alphabet was the clear market winner, with its shares rising nearly 7% in after-hours trading after it also lifted planned spending on AI infrastructure, while Facebook parent company Meta fell more than 7% after signalling flat second-quarter revenue growth. Microsoft and Amazon saw smaller moves. While the figures suggested infrastructure spending in the industry will continue to accelerate, investors remain focused on whether elevated AI-related capital spending will translate into stronger revenue.

German inflation rises in April

Germany’s annual inflation rate is expected to have increased to 2.9% in April from 2.7% in March and 2.1% a year earlier, according to provisional data released by Destatis on Wednesday. Consumer prices rose 0.6% from the previous month, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, eased to 2.3% from 2.5%. The increase in headline inflation was driven largely by energy prices, which jumped 10.1% from a year earlier after rising 7.2% in March, marking their sharpest increase since February 2023. The harmonised index of consumer prices, used for euro-area comparisons, also stood at 2.9% year-on-year in April after a 0.5% monthly increase. European stock markets ended lower on Wednesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.4%, while Germany’s DAX lost 0.3% and France’s CAC 40 also fell 0.4%. The Swiss Market Index underperformed, shedding 0.9%.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Amgen, Apple, BASF, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Caterpillar, Cigna, ConocoPhillips, Deutsche Post, Eli Lilly, Glencore, ING, Mastercard, Merck, Schneider Electric, Stellantis, Stryker, and Volkswagen.

Economic data in focus: French gross domestic product (07:30), German gross domestic product (08:00), German retail sales (08:00), Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (09:00), German unemployment rate (09:55), EU Consumer Price Index (11:00), EU unemployment rate (11:00), EU gross domestic product (11:00), Bank of England interest rate decision (13:00), European Central Bank interest rate decision (14:15), US gross domestic product (14:30), US personal consumption expenditures (14:30), US weekly initial jobless claims (14:30), Canadian gross domestic product (14:30), European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks (17:15).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
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