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Swiss growth subdued as holidays mute markets

Swiss economic growth remained modest in the fourth quarter, with full-year output still expanding at a rate below its long-term trend despite activity standing well above pre-pandemic levels, according to figures released on Monday. Swiss and European equity markets were little moved in thin trading as holidays in the United States and parts of Asia curbed volumes, although Swiss blue chips managed small gains and European bank shares outperformed. Asian trading was also constrained by Lunar New Year closures, with Japanese equities underperforming on weak growth data and tech concerns, while Australian stocks advanced on strength in major mining names.

  • Data
  • Autore Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
  • Tempo di lettura 5 minuto

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Swiss gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs released on Monday, after output had contracted by 0.5% in the third quarter and expanded by 0.2% in the second. Full-year Swiss GDP rose by 1.4% in 2025, following growth of 1.2% in 2024 and 1.3% in 2023, a pace Seco notes remains below the long-term average of 1.8% despite the level of output standing 11.2% above its pre-pandemic 2019 mark. Lingering pressure from higher US customs duties, a strong Swiss franc and weakness in export-oriented industries, especially chemicals and pharmaceuticals, contributed to the weak growth figure. Swiss equities ended slightly higher on Monday, with the blue-chip SMI closing up 0.4% at 13,656.00 points after setting a new intraday record of 13,670 points in relatively calm trading amid US and Asian market holidays. A rotation from this year’s outperformers into laggards was underway as part of a broader consolidation phase ahead of a busy corporate reporting week in Switzerland, including results from heavyweight food group Nestlé on Thursday.

European equities little changed amid holidays

European stock indices moved only marginally on Monday as trading halts in parts of Asia and the United States for public holidays curtailed volumes and limited direction, with the euro area benchmark EuroStoxx 50 edging down 0.1% to 5978.75 points after briefly topping 6000. Bank shares led sector performance, with their sub-index rebounding 1.4% from pre-Christmas lows as falling bond yields supported lenders such as Santander, Unicredit, BNP Paribas, ING and Nordea. The macroeconomic backdrop was weak, with industrial production in the euro area falling by 1.4% in December compared with November, according to data released on Monday, after expanding by 0.3% in the previous month. Output was nevertheless 1.2% higher than in December a year earlier, and average industrial production for 2025 increased by 1.5% compared with 2024.

Asia stocks mixed as Japan lags

Asian equities traded unevenly in holiday-thinned conditions on Tuesday, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling 0.5% as weak fourth-quarter gross domestic product figures and renewed worries over artificial intelligence weighed on technology names such as SoftBank Group and pressured industrial stocks including Kawasaki Heavy Industries and Hitachi. Trading volumes in the region were dampened as markets in China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, while a US market holiday on Monday also limited direction for Asian investors. Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.2%, supported by a nearly 7% jump to a record high in mining group BHP after the company reported strong first-half earnings driven by a late-2025 surge in copper prices and record iron ore output.

Gold retreats as US data, talks loom

Gold and silver prices extended their decline on Tuesday, with spot gold falling 1.9% to USD 4900 per ounce, while spot silver dropped 2.3%. Trading volumes were muted amid market holidays in both China and the United States, and a modestly stronger dollar added pressure on precious metals. Planned nuclear talks in Geneva between the United States and Iran, against a backdrop of heightened military tensions in the Middle East and a more hawkish perception of Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh, failed to generate safe-haven demand for gold despite the deployment of additional US forces and Iranian military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Medtronic.

Economic data in focus: German Consumer Price Index (08:00), UK unemployment rate (08:00), Italian trade balance (10:00), Germany’s ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (11:00), Canadian Consumer Price Index (14:30) and Empire State Manufacturing Index (14:30).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.