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China slowdown and BOJ jitters weigh on Asia

A surprise contraction in China’s private manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) highlighted persistent weakness in the world’s second-largest economy at the start of the week, even as mainland Chinese and Hong Kong equities posted modest gains. Most other Asian stock markets were down on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 under pressure amid rising expectations of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike later this month. US equities finished Friday’s shortened “Black Friday” session higher, supported by hopes for further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and ongoing enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. Market participants now turn their attention to a packed calendar of global manufacturing PMIs and a series of key US labour market releases in the coming days for further signals on the outlook for growth and interest rates.

Data 1 dicembre 2025
Autore Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
Tempo di lettura 5 minuto

China’s privately compiled Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.9 in November, slipping below the 50 threshold and missing market expectations, after readings of 51.2 in September and 50.6 in October, according to data released on Monday. The survey, which focuses on export-oriented manufacturers, indicated that overall production stalled and firms cut staff and purchasing, even as new export orders grew at the fastest pace in eight months. Official government data showed Manufacturing PMI contracted for an eighth month at 49.2, while the non-manufacturing index, covering construction and services, also dropped into contraction at 49.5 amid ongoing weakness in the property and residential services sectors. Broader indicators such as falling fixed-asset and property investment, softer retail sales and the first export decline in nearly two years point to growth slowing to below 4.5% in the fourth quarter from 4.8% in the third, with market participants warning that domestic demand remains subdued and deflation risks are likely to persist.

Asia stocks mixed as Japan falls on BOJ signal

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was 0.7% higher to start the new week and mainland China’s CSI 300 was trading 0.9% up, despite the weak PMI data. Elsewhere in Asia, equities were mostly lower as investors weighed a sharply higher probability of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December against the signs of weakness in China’s manufacturing sector. Korea’s Kospi was 0.2% lower and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.6%. Japanese shares underperformed, with the Nikkei 225 falling 1.8% as the yen strengthened and government bond yields climbed after stronger Tokyo inflation data and comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda that policymakers would discuss the pros and cons of a rate increase at the December 18–19 meeting.

US stocks rise in Black Friday trade

US equities gained ground in shortened trading on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial increasing 0.6% to 47,716.42 points, leaving the index up 3.2% for the week but broadly unchanged over November. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% and the technology-focused Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.8%, as investors were encouraged by prospects of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve in December and ongoing optimism around artificial intelligence. Retail stocks were in focus as US consumers looked for Black Friday discounts, with supermarket group Walmart up 1.3% and online retailer Amazon advancing nearly 2%, although the market expects total spending to be similar to last year with lower sales volumes.

US labour data and manufacturing PMIs in focus

This week, markets concentrate on a dense run of US releases, including Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, Wednesday’s ADP employment report and Thursday’s weekly jobless claims. The US Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index on Monday is a key gauge of industrial activity, while additional Purchasing Managers’ Indices from some of the world’s largest economies on Monday (manufacturing) and Wednesday (services and composite) provide a broader read on global momentum. Inflation remains centre stage with euro-area consumer price indices on Tuesday, Switzerland’s consumer price index on Wednesday and US personal consumption expenditures on Friday, alongside the University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday will also be scrutinised for any signals on the future course of monetary policy.

Swiss leading indicator points to stable growth

The KOF Economic Barometer for Switzerland edged up by 0.2 points to 101.7 in November, following a revised 101.5 in October, according to data released on Friday. The headline index has now risen for the third consecutive month and remains above its medium-term average, signalling stable economic prospects. The improvement is driven mainly by stronger signals from foreign and consumer demand, while indicators for financial and insurance services and the construction sector weakened. The Swiss Market Index finished Friday's session with little change.

Swiss GDP contracts as pharma slumps

Swiss gross domestic product, adjusted for sporting events, fell 0.5% in the third quarter after expanding 0.2% in the previous quarter, confirming the flash estimate previously published. The contraction was driven mainly by a 7.9% decline in value added in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, where earlier export strength linked in part to front-loading ahead of US trade measures reversed, while the energy sector also shrank sharply due to weak nuclear power output, according to figures released on Friday. Private consumption grew 0.4%. However, domestic final demand rose only 0.1%, as government consumption, equipment and construction investment all edged down, and overall exports of goods and services were weighed down by a 4.2% drop in goods exports.

German employment stable in October

German employment was virtually unchanged in October, with the seasonally adjusted number of people in work edging down by 2000, leaving total employment at roughly 46 million, according to data released on Friday. Without seasonal adjustment, employment rose 0.3% versus September, a slightly smaller increase than the typical October pattern seen in recent years, while the number of people in work was 0.1% lower than a year earlier, continuing the gradual year-on-year decline observed since May. Unemployment, based on the labour force survey, rose 8.1% year-on-year to 1.56 million, lifting the unadjusted jobless rate to 3.5% from 3.2% in October last year. After seasonal and irregular adjustment, the number of unemployed increased by 5000 compared with September and the adjusted unemployment rate held steady at 3.8%. European stock indices closed modestly higher on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.3%, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 each added 0.3%.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices from several major economies throughout the world, including Switzerland (09:30), Italy (09:45), France (09:50), Germany (09:55), the euro area (10:00), the UK (10:30) and the US (15:45); ISM Manufacturing PMI (16:00).

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