LGT Private Banking House View

November 2025 - in a nutshell

Global markets continue to impress with their resilience, defying many predictions of a sharp slowdown, even in the notorious autumn months. Consumption in the US economy - the world’s economic powerhouse - is cushioning the impact of tariffs and global uncertainties. While some cracks are emerging, consumption is only moderating gradually, not collapsing. This supports stable, though modest, global growth and permits the Federal Reserve (Fed) to proceed with careful monetary easing.

  • Data
  • Autore Gérald Moser, Head Investment Solutions Europe, LGT Private Banking
  • Tempo di lettura 7 minuto

Coastal road in autumn
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Export-driven economies have found unexpected stability, aided by both persistent US demand and growing success in diversifying trade relationships. Europe and Switzerland are adjusting well, although domestic activity lags and political uncertainty remains. China, despite headwinds, shows adaptability by expanding exports to new markets. While the environment is not without risk - credit market volatility is rising, high-yield spreads are widening slightly, and momentum in gold has outpaced fundamentals - the overall picture is of an orderly global transition to a post-tariff landscape. Inflation remains contained, enabling central banks to support growth while guarding against excesses.

Our investment outlook reflects this cautious optimism. With the late-summer volatility behind us and financial conditions easing, we take profit on our tactical gold "Overweight" and slightly increase our risk appetite by moving equities to an "Overweight" position. We retain a broadly balanced approach in fixed income, focusing on high-quality bonds while remaining defensive on lower-quality credit, where risk is not adequately compensated. Regionally, we upgrade Japan to "Neutral" and remain constructive on emerging markets. 

At LGT, we remain focused on carefully navigating this evolving environment, making sure your portfolios benefit from our disciplined approach, global diversification, and timely tactical adjustments. 

Macroeconomic environment

Robust US consumption continues to stabilise the global economy and support exports from other nations. Thanks to this persistent demand and growing export diversification, global growth has so far remained resilient despite tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and high interest rates. Strategically, dependence on US consumption should gradually decline as more countries strengthen their domestic markets and pursue resilient, diversified export strategies.

Investment strategy

With the typically more difficult late-summer months behind us, we feel comfortable reflecting the benign backdrop appropriately and slightly increase our risk appetite stance. We are taking profit on our tactical gold "Overweight" and reduce the position back to "Neutral", at the strategic weight. Consequently, we are neutralising alternative investments as a whole. We reinvest these proceeds in equities, where our position is now "Overweight", above the strategic weight. Fixed income remains unchanged at "Neutral".

Equity strategy

Global equities have performed well recently, overcoming September’s usual weakness. Looking ahead, strong earnings, especially from AI infrastructure, support continued momentum. We are now "Overweight" equities, favouring emerging markets and raising Japan to "Neutral" due to the weaker yen. Healthcare is upgraded to "Attractive" as US drug pricing risks decline, while the Financials sector is downgraded to "Neutral" amid US credit concerns. 

Fixed-income strategy

Following a quiet summer, volatility in interest rate markets has increased again, with headwinds such as trade tensions and the US government shutdown coming together with a structural trend of rising term premiums. Growing government debt, central banks reducing their balance sheets, and weaker demand from institutional investors are leading to a steeper yield curve, which is becoming the new normal. Despite growing signs of stress, credit market spreads remain tight. Weaknesses in the leveraged loan sector indicate rising risks that require close monitoring. However, as long as there is no significant economic downturn, default rates are likely to remain moderate. We remain cautious and maintain our "Unattractive" defensive stance of investment grade and high yield. Yield trends for Bunds and Treasuries are diverging increasingly. Currently, market participants show little willingness to accept a lower yield in exchange for the defensive quality of German government bonds. We are using the recent decline to reduce our preference for euro duration to "Neutral".

Currency strategy

The US dollar is expected to remain under pressure due to the Fed’s rate-cutting approach amid a weakening labour market and sticky inflation in the US. The euro and Swiss franc are projected to benefit from policy stability and resilient economic factors, with EUR/USD targeted at 1.185 (six months) and 1.20 (12 months), and USD/CHF at 0.78 (six months) and 0.76 (12 months); overall, a neutral stance on both currency pairs is advised.

Precious metals

Gold and silver prices have rallied amid geopolitical uncertainties, strong central bank demand for gold, and the robust industrial use for silver. However, both precious metals are now close to forecasted levels, leading to a neutral outlook. Both metals remain valuable diversifiers, but with recent gains outpacing fundamentals and projections; our gold forecast stands at USD 4100 (six months) and USD 4200 (12 months), silver at USD 50 and USD 52, respectively. In our view, caution is advised as short-term volatility risk rises.

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