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Stocks bounce as oil prices fall back

Equities in the Asia-Pacific region rose on Tuesday, following a rebound at the New York stock exchange on Monday, led by technology and automotive shares after US chip designer Nvidia delivered a positive revenue outlook. WTI crude, which had traded close to USD 100 per barrel at the weekend amid the Iran war, fell back to below USD 94, as reports suggested Iran had allowed two India-flagged gas tankers safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and markets speculated it could extend similar treatment to other vessels from India and China, although overall sentiment remained cautious given the lack of diplomatic progress and muted response to US President Donald Trump’s call for allies to help secure shipping lanes.

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  • Autore Alessandro Fezzi, Content & Publications
  • Tempo di lettura 5 minuto

Oil
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Asia-Pacific equities gained on Tuesday, led by technology and automotive shares after US chip designer Nvidia delivered a sharply higher revenue outlook for its key processors and unveiled autonomous driving partnerships with regional carmakers. Memory chip producers SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics climbed more than 3% and 4%, respectively, while Taiwan’s TSMC added 1%, helped by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s projection on Monday that orders for its Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips could total USD 1 trillion through 2027. Automakers Hyundai Motor, Nissan Motor, Isuzu, China’s BYD and Geely also rose, with Geely up 5%, following news of collaborations with Nvidia on self-driving technology. 

Australia central bank lifts rates again

Australia’s Reserve Bank increased its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.1% on Tuesday, the highest level since April 2025, marking a second consecutive hike as inflation remains above its 3% upper target. The central bank said price pressures had eased from their 2022 peak but accelerated in the second half of 2025 and warned that the Iran war is likely to push global and domestic inflation higher, with headline inflation in Australia at 3.6% in the fourth quarter and 3.8% in January. Policymakers indicated that inflation is now expected to stay above target for longer, with a return to the 2-3% range only projected by late 2026 or 2027 and to the midpoint in 2028 and signalled that earlier forecasts may be revised upwards due to the recent oil shock. The S&P/ASX 200 edged up after the announcement.

Trump hints at China summit delay over Hormuz standoff

US President Trump signalled that his planned late‑March summit in Beijing with Chinese leader Xi Jinping could be postponed, as Washington presses China to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump argued that China, which he claimed sources around 90% of its oil via the waterway, should act out of self‑interest, although analysts noted that diversified energy supplies, large crude reserves and an expanded clean‑energy sector leave Beijing less exposed than suggested. Both sides have nonetheless escalated tensions ahead of the planned meeting, with the US launching new trade investigations under Section 301 and China criticising the probes as unilateral and discriminatory while vowing to defend its interests.

US stocks rebound as oil retreats

US equities recovered on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.8% to 46946.41 points from its weakest level since late November, while the broad-based S&P 500 gained 1% to 6699.38 points and the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 advanced 1.1% to 24655.34 points, helped by easing oil prices and a rally in chipmakers. 

US regional manufacturing sentiment turns negative

The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -0.2 in March from 7.1 a month earlier, sharply underperforming forecasts for a reading of 4. This negative print signals a deterioration in business conditions for manufacturers in New York state, reversing the improving trend seen in recent months. The weaker-than-expected outcome has raised concerns about a possible cooling of the regional manufacturing sector and may weigh on perceptions of the broader US economic outlook. 

Latest data on US industrial production showed a 0.2% increase in February, slightly outpacing economists’ expectations for a 0.1% gain, according to Federal Reserve data. The rise followed a stronger 0.7% expansion in January. Capacity utilisation in the industrial sector held steady at 76.3% in February, marginally above the 76.2% level anticipated by economists.

US homebuilder sentiment inches higher

Confidence among US homebuilder improved slightly in March, with the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index rising to 38 from 37, but it remained below the neutral 50 level for the 23rd consecutive month. The modest uptick was linked to lower mortgage rates at the start of the year after President Trump directed government‑backed lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to increase purchases of mortgage‑backed securities, although borrowing costs have climbed again recently as the conflict with Iran has pushed up oil prices and US Treasury yields. 

European stocks steady amid oil swings

Major European equity indices closed higher on Monday after a choppy session, as hopes that some tankers can again pass through the Strait of Hormuz helped push key oil prices slightly lower despite ongoing heavy attacks by the US and Israel on Iran. The EuroStoxx 50, the benchmark for the euro area, rose 0.4% to 5739.01 points, breaking a three-day losing streak but lagging the stronger rebound seen on Wall Street, while Switzerland’s SMI gained 0.3% to 12,882.20 points. 

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: Swiss Producer and Import Price Index (08:30), Italian Consumer Price Index (10:00), Germany’s ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (11:00), US ADP National Employment Report (13:15), US Pending Home Sales (15:00), US NAHB Housing Market Index (15:00), German Bundesbank President Nagel speaks (16:15).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.