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US stock indices diverge on tech weakness and SNB sticks to zero interest rate policy

The Dow Jones Industrial index on Wall Street reached a record high, supported by the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut, while the Nasdaq closed lower. Following the widely anticipated Fed monetary policy decision, the Swiss National Bank left its key rate unchanged, as expected. Meanwhile, the Ifo institute lowered its economic outlook for Germany due to US tariffs and domestic structural weaknesses. 

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  • Autore Alessandro Fezzi, Content & Publications
  • Tempo di lettura 5 minuto

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On the New York stock exchange US equity indices moved in different directions on Thursday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.3% to a record close of 48,704.01 points, supported again by the Fed’s recent monetary easing, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.4% to 25,686.69 points and the S&P 500 edged up 0.2% to 6901.00 points. Software group Oracle fell nearly 11% after its artificial intelligence-related revenue growth disappointed analysts and the company announced larger investments in AI data centres, which also weighed on major chipmakers such as Nvidia, Applied Materials, ARM and Intel, whose shares lost between about 1.5% and 4%, and on Google parent Alphabet, down 2.4%. Shares of media and entertainment group Walt Disney rose 2.4% after revealing a USD 1 billion stake in ChatGPT developer OpenAI.

Asia-Pacific stocks rise on Wall Street boost

Asia-Pacific equities advanced on Friday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.4% and the broader Topix gained 2%, while South Korea’s Kospi added about 1.1% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index increased around 1.7% and China’s CSI 300 was up 0.6%, even as the Indian rupee slipped to a record low of 90.55 against the US dollar and the Nifty 50 rose 0.4%. Chinese leaders concluded an annual planning meeting on Thursday by signalling continued support for growth in the coming year, including measures to stimulate consumption, stabilise the property sector and strengthen domestic technology capabilities.

SNB keeps its accommodative stance

The Swiss National Bank left its key interest rate unchanged at 0% at its quarterly policy meeting on Thursday, maintaining an accommodative stance to support growth while keeping inflation within its 0% to 2% price stability range. Swiss inflation fell back to 0% year-on-year in November, slightly below earlier expectations, but the SNB still anticipates a gradual increase in price pressures over the coming quarters and now projects average inflation of 0.2% for 2025, 0.3% for 2026 and 0.6% for 2027, slightly below its previous forecasts. Markets therefore largely expect no move away from the zero bound in 2026, with the first tightening only seen from early 2027. The SNB also noted that the recent US tariff agreement and a somewhat firmer global backdrop have marginally improved the outlook for the Swiss economy, where it forecasts gross domestic product growth of just under 1.5% in 2025 and around 1% in 2026, alongside a modest rise in unemployment. 

Ifo cuts German growth outlook on US tariffs

Munich-based Ifo Institute lowered its economic outlook, now expecting real gross domestic product growth of 0.1% this year and only 0.8% and 1.1% in 2026 and 2027, each 0.5 percentage points below its previous projections, mainly due to US tariff policy and domestic structural weaknesses. The institute estimate that tariffs introduced under US President Donald Trump will reduce German growth by 0.3 percentage points in 2025 and 0.6 points in 2026, with elevated duties on cars, steel and aluminium weighing on key export sectors even after a de-escalating trade agreement between the US and the EU. While Ifo expects the labour market to remain comparatively resilient, with unemployment rising to 6.3% in 2025 before stabilising and then edging down to 5.9% in 2027, it warns that Germany is failing to benefit from projected global growth of around 2.5% per year and continues to lose competitiveness. The institute argues that large government spending packages, including a EUR 500 billion infrastructure fund, will provide only temporary support without deeper structural reforms to reduce bureaucracy, tackle high energy and social costs and boost productivity, with economists also noting subdued consumer demand as households react to higher prices by cutting back on spending.

US jobless claims jump sharply

Initial jobless claims increased by 44,000 to 236,000 in the latest weekly report, marking the strongest rise since March 2020 and clearly exceeding economists’ expectations for a much smaller increase. The previous week’s figure was revised up slightly to 192,000, which had been at the lowest level in more than three years. Weekly jobless claims are closely followed as a timely gauge of US labour market conditions and are an important input for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: UK gross domestic product, manufacturing production, and trade balance (09:00), German Consumer Price Index (09:00), French Consumer Price Index (09:45), euro-area Consumer Price Index (10:00), Spanish Consumer Price Index (10:00).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.