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Focus on earnings season, geopolitical tensions

Earnings season kicks off this week with major US banks in focus, while investors also look to key US inflation data and a busy European macro calendar against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical risks and questions over Federal Reserve independence. US equities ended Friday higher with the S&P 500 closing at a record, European markets finished the week firmly in positive territory, and Asia-Pacific stocks were trading broadly stronger on Monday, led by Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong. Gold reached a new record on Monday, surging toward USD 4600 an ounce, and silver neared USD 85 as concerns over Federal Reserve independence following a potential criminal indictment of Chair Jerome Powell and deadly protests in Iran boosted safe-haven demand. The US dollar weakened slightly, with the Dollar Index slipping to just below 99, while bitcoin saw mild gains, trading around USD 91,700.

  • Date
  • Auteur Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
  • Temps de lecture 5 minutes

Earnings Season Wrap-Up
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This week, markets focus on a busy macroeconomic calendar and the start of the fourth‑quarter US earnings season. On the data front, US inflation is in the spotlight with the December Consumer Price Index on Tuesday and a raft of producer price, retail sales and other activity indicators on Wednesday, which will help investors gauge the momentum of the US economy and the implications for Federal Reserve policy. In Europe, attention centres on December inflation data from France and Spain on Thursday and Germany on Friday, alongside euro-area industrial production and trade figures, while Switzerland’s SECO consumer climate (Monday) and eurozone Sentix investor confidence (Monday) provide early readings on sentiment. Earnings season gets underway in traditional fashion with US banks in focus, as JPMorgan reports on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup on Wednesday, and finally Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs on Thursday. Taiwan Semiconductor on Thursday adds one of the world’s largest technology names to the docket. Markets will also monitor Chinese trade data on Wednesday for additional signals on global growth and trade dynamics, while Japanese markets are closed on Monday for the "Coming of Age" holiday.

Asia stocks gain on China AI strength despite geopolitical risks

Asian equities advanced on Monday, with South Korea’s Kospi (+0.8%) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (+1.2%) among the better performers, as regional technology and chip stocks followed Friday’s Wall Street rally and enthusiasm for newly listed Chinese AI names such as Z.AI and MiniMax. Mainland Chinese indices, including the CSI 300 (+0.6%), also moved higher, supported by optimism around the domestic AI and semiconductor ecosystem and strong December sales from major chipmaker TSMC. Broader gains in markets such as Singapore and Australia were underpinned by firmer commodity prices and policy signals on sovereign wealth fund investments, although India’s Nifty 50 underperformed on concerns over potential new US trade restrictions. Japan’s Nikkei 225 led gains, trading 1.6% higher.

US stocks rise on rate-cut hopes

Mixed US labour market figures boosted expectations for faster Federal Reserve rate cuts on Friday, lifting the S&P 500 to a record close with a gain of 0.7% and supporting a 0.5% rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. US nonfarm payrolls data released on Friday showed employment rising by only 50,000 in December, falling short of economists’ expectations for stronger job gains and below November’s 56,000 increase, pointing to a cooling labour market and a possible moderation in economic momentum. Rate-sensitive technology and semiconductor shares led gains, with the Nasdaq 100 up 1% and Intel advancing almost 11%, while US President Donald Trump’s order to purchase USD 200 billion of mortgage-backed securities drove sharp increases in mortgage lender stocks such as Rocket Companies and Opendoor Technologies. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Sunday that he is facing a criminal investigation over the USD 2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters and related testimony, which he linked to political pressure from US President Donald Trump, a development that could weigh on risk sentiment as investors reassess Fed independence.

Swiss unemployment edges up to 3% in December

Swiss labour market conditions softened in 2025, with the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rising gradually from 2.7% in January to 3% in December and averaging 2.8% over the year, up from 2.4% in 2024. The number of registered unemployed fell from 135,773 in January to 126,877 in June but then increased steadily to 147,275 by December, while the total number of jobseekers climbed to 231,624 at year-end, contributing to a yearly average of 214,098. Financially, the unemployment insurance compensation fund is expected to close 2025 with a deficit of CHF 0.32 billion as higher unemployment and short-time work benefits (CHF 6.58 billion and CHF 0.37 billion respectively) coincided with reduced federal contributions under the new relief law. The Swiss Market Index added 0.5% on Friday.

German trade surplus narrows in November

German exports of calendar and seasonally adjusted goods fell to EUR 128.1 billion in November, a decline of 2.5% from October and 0.8% compared with a year earlier, according to data released on Friday. Imports rose 0.8% on the month and 5.4% year-on-year to EUR 115.1 billion, reducing the adjusted trade surplus to EUR 13.1 billion from EUR 17.2 billion in October and EUR 20.0 billion a year earlier. The United States remained the largest export market despite a 4.2% monthly drop and a 22.9% annual fall in shipments, whereas China was Germany’s biggest import source, with imports from there up 8% on the month and 8.7% in the first eleven months of the year. Germany’s DAX rose 0.5% on Friday.

Euro-area retail sales edge higher

Eurostat reported on Friday that seasonally adjusted retail trade volumes in both the euro area and the EU rose by 0.2% in November compared with October, when euro-area sales had increased by 0.3% and EU sales by 0.2%. Calendar-adjusted retail volumes were 2.3% higher than a year earlier in both regions, with growth driven mainly by stronger demand for non-food products, which rose 3.5% year-on-year in the euro area and 3.6% in the EU, while food, drinks and tobacco volumes increased by 1.1% and 0.8%, respectively. On a monthly basis, euro-area sales of non-food items advanced by 0.4%; in the EU, non-food trade also grew 0.4%, while the other main categories were broadly stable. European stock markets ended Friday firmly higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.6%.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: SECO Swiss consumer sentiment (09:00), Sentix investor confidence for the eurozone (10:30) and Bundesbank monthly report (12:00).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
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