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Markets eye US data as oil swings on fragile truce

Global markets remained focused on the uncertain ceasefire between the United States and Iran on Thursday, with oil prices rebounding after their sharpest daily drop in years as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stayed heavily disrupted. Asian equities traded mostly lower, contrasting with the strong relief rally in US and European stock markets on Wednesday driven by easing energy concerns. Attention is now turning to a series of key US macroeconomic releases later on Thursday, including gross domestic product and personal consumption expenditures.

  • Date
  • Auteur Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
  • Temps de lecture 5 minutes

Macroeconomic data
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Oil prices recovered on Thursday after suffering their steepest daily fall since 2020 the previous day, as tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely constrained and ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon cast doubt on the Middle East ceasefire. Brent crude moved back towards USD 97 per barrel after a 13% slump on Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate also trading near USD 97, as conflicting reports emerged over whether Iranian forces were still blocking tanker traffic and whether the truce covered Lebanese territory. Meanwhile, gold prices were slightly lower, trading around USD 4730 per ounce, US Treasury yields were little changed, and the Dollar Index was stable.

Asia stocks slip as Iran tensions linger

Asia-Pacific equities traded broadly lower on Thursday as investors reassessed the fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.3%, mainland China’s CSI 300 was trading 0.7% in the red, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was 0.3% weaker and India’s Nifty 50 slipped 0.7%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was essentially flat. The risk-off mood followed US President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of a temporary halt to strikes on Iran in return for a 10-point proposal including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran’s parliamentary speaker later said had been breached due to continued Israeli attacks in Lebanon, a drone incursion into Iranian airspace and US opposition to Iran’s uranium enrichment.

US stocks jump on Middle East truce hopes

US equities moved sharply higher on Wednesday after a ceasefire in the Iranian conflict eased tensions and pushed Brent crude prices down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2.9% higher near its intraday peak, while the broad S&P 500 gained 2.5% and the technology-focused Nasdaq 100 advanced 2.9%. The CBOE Volatility Index – a gauge of market fear – slumped 18.4% on Wednesday. The rebound in stocks weighed heavily on recent winners in the energy sector, where shares of oil and gas producers such as Chevron, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips fell by as much as 5%, while airline stocks including American Airlines, United Airlines and Delta Air Lines rose strongly. Chipmaker Intel extended its recent rally with an 11.4% increase, taking its gains this year to almost 60%.

European stocks rally on Iran truce

Major European equity indices staged a strong rebound on Wednesday after a two-week ceasefire was agreed in the conflict between the United States and Iran, with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz easing oil supply concerns and driving crude prices sharply lower. The EuroStoxx 50 jumped 5%, while Switzerland’s SMI rose 2.6%. Travel and leisure shares led gains, particularly airlines such as Air France-KLM, alongside industrial and technology groups including Safran, Schneider Electric and chip-equipment maker ASML, which had previously come under pressure from supply-chain worries and high energy costs.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: German trade balance (08:00), German manufacturing production (08:00), Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel speaks (10:00), US gross domestic product (14:30), US personal consumption expenditures (14:30) and US weekly initial jobless claims (14:30).

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