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Oil steady ahead of dense macroeconomic calendar

Oil prices stabilised at high levels to start the week after US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that Washington would begin "Project Freedom" on Monday, Middle East time, to help neutral commercial ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz leave the area safely. US stocks closed mixed but near record highs on Friday after upbeat Apple results supported the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and Asian equities were trading mostly higher on Monday, led by a sharp rally in South Korean stocks, while Japan and China were closed for public holidays. Most major European markets were closed on Friday for a public holiday. On Monday, the US Dollar Index was stable, while gold was little changed near USD 4600 per ounce and bitcoin was slightly higher near USD 80,000.

  • Date
  • Auteur Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
  • Temps de lecture 5 minutes

Market numbers
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This week, alongside developments in the Middle East, attention centres on the US labour market, with a run of employment indicators likely to shape the market narrative. The United States releases the JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday, followed by ADP private employment data on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. The main event comes on Friday, when US non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate and wage growth for April are published alongside the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, offering a broad read on household confidence and inflation perceptions. Elsewhere, final Purchasing Managers’ Indices are due across the euro area’s largest economies early in the week, while Switzerland releases April consumer price data on Tuesday. Markets in China remain closed on Monday and Tuesday, while Japan is shut from Monday through Wednesday for public holidays and the UK is closed on Monday for the Early May Bank Holiday. On Monday, South Korean equities climbed to a record high on Monday after posting their strongest monthly advance in April, with the Kospi rising 4.7%, following a historic rally last month. Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.5%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.3%, and India’s Nifty 50 rose 1%, while markets in Japan and China were closed for public holidays.

US stocks hit new records

US equities ended mixed on Friday as Apple’s stronger-than-expected quarterly results and outlook lifted sentiment, pushing the S&P 500 up 0.3% to 7230.12 points and the Nasdaq 100 0.9% higher to 27,710.36, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3% to 49,499.27. Apple shares rose 3.2% after the iPhone maker reported profit growth of nearly a fifth and revenue above expectations, helping extend gains in large technology stocks. Broader support also came from generally solid US earnings reports, which analysts said had helped global markets remain resilient despite tensions linked to the Iran conflict. Elsewhere, biotech group Amgen fell nearly 5%, while oil majors Chevron and Exxon Mobil declined as crude prices weakened despite better-than-expected earnings.

US growth rebounds but risks loom

US gross domestic product grew at a 2% annualised pace in the first quarter, picking up from 0.5% in the previous quarter but falling slightly short of economists’ projections for stronger growth, according to data released on Thursday. Activity was supported by an 8.7% annual rise in business investment linked to the artificial intelligence boom and by tax cuts, although consumer spending growth eased to 1.6% from 1.9% at the end of last year, with recent data showing higher-income households driving most of March’s gains. Economists warned that the war in Iran, which has driven Brent crude to around USD 126 and pushed US gasoline prices to their highest level since mid-2022, could trim growth by about 0.3 percentage points this year, bringing full-year expansion to an estimated 1.8% after 2.1% in 2025. The latest release also showed the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, rising at a 3.2% annual rate, remaining above the central bank’s 2% goal.

ECB holds rates despite inflation spike

The European Central Bank left its benchmark deposit rate unchanged at 2% on Thursday, even as flash data showed euro-area inflation accelerating to 3% in April from 2.6% in March, largely due to higher energy costs linked to the war in the Middle East. The ECB said upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have intensified, but reiterated its commitment to bringing price pressures back to its 2% target over the medium term. Policymakers stressed a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach and refused to pre-commit to a rate path, noting that the impact of the conflict on inflation and activity will hinge on the duration and severity of the energy price shock.

Bank of England holds rate as war clouds outlook

The Bank of England also kept its key interest rate unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, with an 8–1 Monetary Policy Committee vote as policymakers assessed the impact of the Iran war on the United Kingdom’s inflation and growth outlook. Chief Economist Huw Pill was the sole dissenter, backing a 0.25 percentage point increase, while sterling rose slightly against the US dollar and 10-year gilt yields eased 6 basis points to just above 5% after the decision. The bank warned that the conflict in the Middle East is likely to push energy prices higher, with consumer price inflation already accelerating to 3.3% in March from 3%, and highlighted risks of second-round effects from wage and price-setting even as the labour market loosens and financial conditions tighten.

Euro-area growth remains weak as inflation re-accelerates

Eurostat’s preliminary data showed that euro area and EU gross domestic product grew by just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, slowing from 0.2% in the previous quarter, while year-on-year growth eased to 0.8% in the euro area and 1% in the EU. Against this subdued growth backdrop, a separate flash estimate on Thursday indicated that euro-area annual inflation picked up to 3% in April from 2.6% in March, driven primarily by a sharp acceleration in energy prices to 10.9% from 5.1%, even as underlying inflation excluding energy edged down to 2.2%. The data, which are subject to revision in mid-May, underscore the policy dilemma of an economy that is expanding only modestly while headline inflation is being pushed higher by renewed energy cost pressures.

German GDP edges higher as labour market softens

Germany’s economic output continued to recover in the first quarter, with gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter after 0.2% at the end of last year, while price-adjusted GDP was 0.5% higher than a year earlier, according to data released on Thursday by the Federal Statistical Office. The improvement was driven by stronger household and government consumption and firmer exports, even as earlier growth figures for late 2025 were revised slightly lower and full-year 2025 GDP growth was trimmed to 0.3% from 0.4%. Labour market data for March painted a weaker picture, however, with seasonally adjusted employment falling by 25,000, or 0.1%, from February and average employment in the first quarter down 0.1% on the previous three months, while the number of people in work was 0.4% lower than a year earlier and unemployment rose by 210,000 to 1.84 million, lifting the jobless rate to 4.2%.

Swiss business outlook improves but stays subdued

The KOF Economic Barometer for Switzerland rose by 2.3 points to 97.9 in April from a revised 95.6 in March, partially reversing the previous month’s sharp decline but still remaining below its medium-term average, according to data released on Thursday by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute. The latest reading points to only cautious growth prospects, with brighter signals coming from manufacturing, services and consumer demand, while indicators for hospitality weakened.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Palantir and Vertex.

Economic data in focus: Purchasing Managers’ Index from Switzerland (09:30), Italy (09:45), France (09:50), Germany (09:55) and the euro area (10:00); public holidays in China, Japan and the UK.

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
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