The Strategist

The head of the US central bank, Jerome Powell, warned that US tariffs could prolong inflation. On Wall Street, equity indices were under pressure, driven by a negative sentiment in technology stocks, and despite better-than-expected US retail sales data. In Asian stock markets, however, saw...

Economic growth in the world’s second-largest economy was stronger than anticipated in the first quarter of this year. Stock indices in the Asian-Pacific region traded mostly lower today, led by a drop in Hong Kong, following a downturn on Wall Street on Tuesday. Today, investors awaited more...

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose on Tuesday following a tech-driven rally on Wall Street. President Trump’s comments on possible temporary tariff relief provided some support, but uncertainty remains over future trade policies. As the corporate earnings season has just kicked off, the New York...

US stocks closed on Friday with some gains, after a volatile week amid the trade war and US consumer confidence marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. Meanwhile, US President Trump exempted smartphones, computers, and other tech products from imposed tariffs on Chinese imports. This...

Investors were relieved by US President Donald Trump's announcement of a 90-day tariff reprieve on most countries, while the trade war with China further escalated. Yesterday, US tariffs on China were once more increased to 145%. Stock prices on Wall Street again came under selling pressure and...

US stock markets surged on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on some tariffs, leading to a massive rally on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its largest gain since March 2020, while the S&P 500 recorded its biggest one-day increase since 2008.

Global equity markets looked like they found some relief after having been rocked by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs in recent days and rising tensions between the US and its trading partners. While European markets rebounded on Tuesday, equity indices on Wall Street reversed earlier gains...

Global stock markets declined sharply at the start of this week, deepening a global market rout following President Trump’s announcements of the US tariffs regime. However, after a very volatile Wall Street trading session, equity markets in the Asian-Pacific region started to rebound from the...

Global stock markets experienced significant declines on Friday after China announced a 34% tariff on all US imports, reciprocating the tariffs imposed by US President Trump earlier, further exacerbating a global trade war and recession concerns. Stock indices on Wall Street fell sharply for a...

US President Donald Trump’s sweeping "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports and higher rates on specific countries, including 34% on China and 20% on the EU. The move has led to sharp declines in global stock markets and prompted threats of countermeasures...

As we navigate the first quarter of 2025, the global economy is experiencing significant shifts, increasingly questioning fundamental beliefs that have held true for years. The resilience seen in 2024 has given way to a more complex landscape: The erratic US policies, a chaotic trade war...

Growing uncertainties and an unsettled global economy are shaping our current investment strategies. In particular, the rather erratic US trade policy of the new Trump administration is having a significant impact on the global economy, leading to unpredictable economic outcomes and a stronger...

As 2025 begins, the global economy stands on relatively solid ground, though growth remains uneven across regions. We witness an economic landscape heavily influenced by persistent inflation and stringent monetary policies. The re-election of Donald Trump introduces both opportunities and...

We maintain our pro-cyclical stance in the run-up to 2025 and leave our tactical positioning unchanged. Our economic forecast remains steady, but the incoming Trump administration introduces an element of uncertainty. We favour US equities for earnings growth and see catch-up potential in...

"Trumponomics 2.0" has been the dominant theme in capital markets since Trump’s election victory. In his second term, the administration is likely to focus on tax cuts, spending cuts and trade protectionism. In the short term, these measures could boost investment, consumption and the labour...

We maintain our risk-on positioning and confirm our tactical "Overweight" in global equity, with a focus on US equity markets. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the US elections, we reduce the magnitude of the US equity "Overweight". In fixed income, we increase the duration of US...

The US economy remains stable with solid consumption, and the Federal Reserve has begun a rate-cutting cycle to support growth. While we maintain our US equities "Overweight", we introduce an "Underweight" in Japanese equities. Fixed income stays "Underweight", but we see value in government...

The sharp rise in equity volatility at the beginning of August proved to be a correction. We shift US equities to "Overweight", while fixed income remains “Underweight“, and we are taking profits in gold. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in September, easing market headwinds and...

With the overall picture remaining constructive, we maintain our "Overweight" in equities and "Underweight" in fixed income. Fundamentally, stronger electricity demand growth, low valuations and the prospect of an interest rate turnaround offer attractive entry points in the utilities sector...

The solid but slowing growth environment should continue for the time being, albeit with regional differences, and the risk of recession seems to have been pushed further out. The equity market offers a more attractive risk/reward profile than the credit market, with the US stock market in...

Central bank chair is a tough job at the best of times. Jerome Powell’s Fed will be remembered as the Fed that left rates at record lows for too long when inflation raged, and subsequently tried to engineer a post-Covid soft landing (quite successfully for most of the normalisation phase). This...

After four of the "Magnificent Seven" - Tesla, Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Apple - presented their quarterly figures last week, it is a good time for an initial assessment of the Q4 2024 reporting season. The preliminary conclusion is that the usual game is working again this quarter: after...

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently raised its policy rate for the first time since last summer, resuming a gradual withdrawal of its long-standing monetary stimulus. Although the announcement was accompanied by relatively dovish guidance, we interpret the central bank’s stance as leaning more...

As the world watches the transition of power in the United States and worries about import tariffs, Europe faces its own political changes. Germany heads to the polls on 23 February after its coalition government collapsed in November 2024. This election could be crucial for the country's economy.

Just before Christmas, Google caused a stir when the company unveiled a quantum computer with the new "Willow" chip and demonstrated its superiority over conventional computers. In less than five minutes, it performed a calculation that would take one of the fastest supercomputers ten...

The third quarter earnings season is winding down. Here's a summary of the key takeaways.

In a week, the citizens of the USA will once again decide who will lead the country for the next four years. After President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal as the Democratic candidate in July, Kamala Harris brought new momentum to the race for the White House. With her, a woman could hold...

Polls on the US election continue to show a close race. What consequences would a Trump or Harris victory have for the global economy? Donald Trump's proposed tariff policy aims to strengthen American manufacturing by imposing high import tariffs, particularly on Chinese goods, which could...

In the second half of 2024, key economic trends emerged, shaping the global economic outlook. Disinflation returned on both sides of the Atlantic, the US labour market cooled further with slower job creation and falling wage inflation, and central banks began gradually easing their previously...

French bonds are once again in the spotlight and, for the first time since 2007, are perceived by the market as riskier than Spanish government bonds - despite Spain having a credit rating three notches lower. Simultaneously, the interest rate spread over German bonds has widened from around 50...