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US shutdown in the spotlight

This week, markets turn their attention to key economic releases from Europe and China as the ongoing US government shutdown is likely to continue delaying the publication of important US data, including Thursday's Consumer Price Index (CPI). Investors will closely watch for updates on the government shutdown itself after the US Senated on Sunday moved forward with a bill designed to end the record-setting government shutdown, signalling that an agreement could soon be reached, pending approval in the House of Representatives. The euro area features prominently with German CPI on Wednesday, euro-area gross domestic product (GDP) and French inflation on Friday, offering fresh insights into the region’s economic trajectory. In the UK, market participants assess labour market data (Tuesday) and third-quarter GDP figures (Thursday). China updates investors with industrial production and unemployment figures at the end of the week.

  • Date
  • Auteur Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
  • Temps de lecture 5 minutes

US Capitol with US flag
© Shutterstock

Asian equity markets presented a mixed picture on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI gaining 1.3% and 3% respectively, led by a rebound in technology shares after steep declines last week driven by concerns over artificial intelligence valuations. Major chipmakers such as SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Advantest and Tokyo Electron posted strong advances, while positive comments from NVIDIA’s CEO on AI chip demand supported sentiment. China’s indices underperformed despite inflation data for October indicating the first consumer price increase since June, with broader concerns persisting over weak domestic demand and a still-present deflationary trend. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 1.4%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was up 0.3%. Other regional markets were mixed, with modest gains in Australia’s S&P/ASX 200, which climbed 0.8%.

China eases mineral export curbs after trade truce

China’s Ministry of Commerce announced on Friday the suspension of several export restrictions on rare earth elements, lithium battery materials and related processing technologies for one year, following the trade agreement reached between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of October. The rollback also extends to export limits on gallium, germanium, antimony and synthetic materials first imposed last December, and includes relaxed controls on dual-use graphite. These moves come as the US agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese imports by 10 percentage points and suspend additional tariffs and blacklisting measures until November 2026. The easing of export curbs underscores improving relations between the two countries and signals greater cooperation in key technology and resource sectors.

US equities end volatile week flat

US equity markets closed largely unchanged on Friday after recovering sharper losses earlier in the session, as concerns over artificial intelligence continued to weigh on sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial rose 0.2% to 46,987.10 points, resulting in a weekly loss of more than 1%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.1% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%, extending its weekly decline to over 3%. Electric vehicle maker Tesla shares lost 3.7% as shareholders approved a compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk valued at up to USD 1 trillion.

US consumer sentiment falls sharply in November

The University of Michigan’s survey showed US consumer sentiment dropped 6.2% from October and almost 30% lower than a year ago, marking the lowest reading in three years and approaching record lows. The persistent federal government shutdown is leading consumers to express intensifying concerns about their finances and the broader business outlook, with sentiment weakening across income, age, and political groups except for those with substantial stock holdings.

German exports and imports post solid growth

German exports rose by 1.4% to EUR 131.1 billion in September according to data published on Friday, while imports advanced 3.1% to EUR 115.9 billion compared with August. Year on year, exports were up 2.0% and imports increased by 4.8%, though the trade surplus narrowed to EUR 15.3 billion from EUR 18.0 billion in September 2024. Export growth was particularly notable for shipments to the United States, which rebounded by 11.9% on the month, while imports from China led with a 6.1% increase. Germany’s foreign trade balance continues to reflect stronger momentum in imports than exports, tempering overall surplus growth. European stock indices fell on Friday: The Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.8%, while Germany’s DAX dropped 0.7% and France’s CAC 40 slid 0.2%. The Swiss Market Index was little changed for the session.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Hannover Rueck and Sony.

Economic data in focus: Sentix investor confidence (10:30).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
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