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US inflation and jobs shape the week

This week, US inflation and employment data take centre stage, while Australia announces its interest rate decision on Tuesday. Wednesday brings August US personal consumption expenditures inflation and second-quarter US GDP, alongside September inflation figures from Germany and France and China’s purchasing managers’ indices. Thursday’s highlights are the US ISM manufacturing survey, Swiss inflation and remarks by SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel. On Friday, the US releases its September jobs report, alongside inflation figures for the euro area and Tokyo. Chinese markets are closed on Thursday and Friday for National Day.

  • Date
  • Author Amira Scherz, Junior Investment Writer
  • Reading time 5 minutes

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Oil prices rose on Monday after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while the EU urged energy conservation amid concerns about gas supplies. US and European stocks had gained on Friday on hopes of an easing in the conflict, despite weaker US consumer sentiment and broadly flat durable goods orders. Asian equities were mixed on Monday as Chinese industrial profit growth slowed, while gold fell sharply.

Oil rises amid EU energy concerns

Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures both rose 1.8% on Monday to USD 99.16 and USD 94.06 per barrel, respectively, after US President Trump rejected Iran’s conditional proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The EU urged member states to reduce gas and electricity use and continue filling storage ahead of winter, Bloomberg reported on Saturday. European gas prices have more than doubled since the war began in February, while EU storage was just over 70% full, below its seasonal norm of 86%.

Weaker Chinese industry

China’s industrial profits grew 4.2% year-on-year in August, down from 20.4% a year earlier, data released on Monday showed. Growth at large firms slowed to 15.7% in the first eight months from 17.6% in the January-to-July period, partly reflecting a high year-earlier base. Equity markets across Asia were mixed on Monday: Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down about 0.3% and South Korea’s KOSPI fell more than 2% to about 6915 points. Mainland China’s CSI 300 lost about 2.4%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.6% to about 24,646.00 points. Gold fell 2.1% to around USD 4200 per ounce, while bitcoin slipped 0.9% to around USD 83,600. As of Sunday, bitcoin’s third-quarter gain stood at about 43.5%.

US stocks rise on Iran peace hopes

US stocks rose on Friday last week as oil prices eased on signs of a possible resolution to the conflict with Iran. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.9% to 51,828.62 points after reaching its lowest level since June in the previous session, while the S&P 500 rose 0.5% to 7743.41 points and the Nasdaq-100 added 0.4% to 30,608.13 points. Software giant Microsoft climbed 3.7% after announcing new Copilot features, while Facebook parent Meta fell 3.3% as investors took profits. Separately, aerospace company SpaceX plans its first attempt to send Starship into orbit on Monday and aims to deploy 26 Starlink satellites.

US consumer sentiment falls significantly

Confidence among Americans fell to 48.1 in September from 51.7 in August and 55.1 in September 2025, according to final data released on Friday last week. High prices, fuel costs and trade tensions weighed on households, while one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6% from 4% in August. US durable goods orders were broadly unchanged at USD 338.6 billion in August, defying expectations of a decline as weaker transport orders offset gains elsewhere. Orders excluding transport rose 0.3%, down from 0.7% in July, while a measure of planned business investment increased 1.6% after a 0.6% gain.

European stocks edge higher at the end of last week

European stocks rose on Friday, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.5% to 6302.82 points and Switzerland’s SMI up 0.3% to 13,945.71 points. UBS gained 3.2% on reports of a possible tie-up with a foreign bank. Energy shares fell as Iran’s proposal to resume talks with the US raised hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: Italian trade balance (10:00), European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks (15:30) and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (16:30).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.