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Fed, gold and tech earnings in focus

Gold’s surge to a new record above USD 5000 per ounce underscored a cautious start to the week, with safe-haven demand supported by geopolitical tensions, a weaker US dollar and lingering doubts over US policy. The market expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold rates on Wednesday, while a heavy slate of earnings from major US technology companies could set the tone for global risk sentiment later in the week. US and European equities finished last week mixed, while Asian markets were trading unevenly on Monday. Rates moved slightly lower last week, with US Treasury yields down across the curve: the 2-year was trading below 3.6% and the 10-year around 4.2%.

  • Date
  • Auteur Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
  • Temps de lecture 5 minutes

Stock market indices
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This week, central bank decisions are at the forefront as the Fed announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday and the Bank of Canada as well as Brazil’s central bank also announce interest rate decisions the same day. Labour-market indicators in the US remain important, with the ADP employment change on Tuesday and weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday. In Europe, investors will monitor confidence and growth signals including the German Ifo Business Climate Index on Monday, German consumer climate on Wednesday, and a raft of Friday releases such as German, French and Spanish gross domestic product figures as well as German unemployment. Inflation developments will also be closely watched, with Tokyo and German consumer prices and US producer prices on Friday helping markets gauge the trajectory of price pressures in some of the world's largest economies. On the corporate side, all eyes are on big tech stocks: Microsoft, Meta and Tesla report quarterly earnings on Wednesday, followed by Apple on Thursday.

Gold hits record above USD 5000

Gold surged to a record high above USD 5000 per ounce on Monday, with spot prices rising about 2.1% to USD 5090. The metal gained more than 60% last year and is already up more than 17% this year, supported by safe-haven demand, easier US monetary policy, strong central bank purchases and robust inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds. The latest leg higher was triggered by growing doubts over the US administration and US assets following abrupt tariff threats and reversals by US President Donald Trump, alongside a weaker US dollar as investors cut positions ahead of this week’s Fed meeting. Silver, platinum and palladium also advanced, with silver and platinum reaching new records and palladium hitting its highest level in more than three years.

Asian stocks mixed before Fed meeting

Asian equity markets traded mixed on Monday as investors looked ahead to this week’s Fed decision and a heavy calendar of major technology earnings, while Japanese shares came under particular pressure from currency moves. The Nikkei 225 dropped 1.8% as a sharply stronger yen hurt export-oriented stocks, while Korea’s Kospi was down 0.8%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was trading marginally lower and mainland China’s CSI 300 posted small gains. Markets in Australia and India were closed for public holidays on Monday.

US stocks mixed at week’s end

US equities ended the week with a mixed performance on Friday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% to 49,098.71 points while the S&P 500 was little changed at 6915.61 points and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3% to 25,605.47 points. Trading was shaped by ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions, including the temporarily defused dispute over Greenland and withdrawn tariff threats by Trump, while the macroeconomic backdrop supported sentiment. US business activity expanded slightly faster in January, with the flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 52.8 from 52.7 in December, while the manufacturing component output increased at the quickest rate since last August. Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment picked up in January, according the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, with the headline index rising 6.6% month-on-month to 56.4, while remaining well below its level a year ago.

Eurozone output growth steady in January

Euro-area private sector activity increased for the thirteenth consecutive month in January, with the Composite PMI output index unchanged at 51.5, as modest services growth offset only fractional factory output expansion. New orders rose for a sixth month but at the slowest pace since September 2025, employment fell for the first time in four months and backlogs were run down, while both input cost and selling price inflation accelerated. Germany stood out with the sharpest rise in activity since last October but also the steepest fall in employment outside the pandemic period since November 2009, whereas France saw business activity slip back into contraction and selling prices stagnate. European stock markets showed only modest moves on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 slipped 0.1%, while Germany’s DAX gained 0.2% and France’s CAC 40 edged down 0.1%. The Swiss Market Index underperformed its eurozone peers, falling 0.6%.

UK activity picks up on PMI and retail data

UK private sector output grew solidly in January, with Flash Composite PMI rising to 53.9 from 51.4 in December, its highest level since April 2024. Meanwhile, British retail sales volumes increased by 0.4% in December compared with November and were 2.5% higher than a year earlier, the first monthly rise since September, data also released on Friday showed. Taken together, the PMI and retail figures point to a gradually improving UK economy after the latest budget, even though underlying challenges such as a soft labour market and persistent cost pressures remain.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index (10:00), US durable goods orders (14:30), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (16:30).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
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