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Gold surge and Fed pause shape sentiment

Gold’s record-breaking rally accelerated on Thursday, with prices pushing higher as investors sought safety amid rising geopolitical tensions and lingering uncertainty about the interest-rate outlook following the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday. US equity markets ended Wednesday’s session virtually flat, while after-hours trading in major technology names showed a mixed reaction to quarterly results. Asian stock markets were trading mixed on Thursday as recent tech-led gains began to fade. Attention is now turning to a heavy slate of earnings from large global corporates, particularly Apple, later in the day.

  • Date
  • Auteur Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
  • Temps de lecture 5 minutes

US Federal Reserve
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The Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% on Wednesday, pausing after three consecutive cuts that had been justified by a softer US labour market. The decision came despite ongoing pressure from US President Donald Trump and followed a Federal Open Market Committee meeting that again revealed divisions, with two governors arguing for another quarter-point reduction even as Powell highlighted solid economic growth, low unemployment at 4.4% and still-elevated inflation of 2.8%. Powell used the press conference to reiterate the importance of the central bank’s independence, defended his attendance at a Supreme Court hearing on the dismissal of Fed governor Lisa Cook and warned that once confidence in the Fed’s political neutrality is lost, it is very difficult to restore.

Gold rally gathers pace as haven demand surges

Gold climbed to a fresh record just below USD 5600 an ounce on Thursday, extending a move of more than 10% this week after first breaking through USD 5000 on Monday, as investors sought safety amid geopolitical tensions, central bank buying and a weaker US dollar. The metal has risen over 27% this year after a more than 60% gain in 2025, with some market participants increasingly viewing gold as a neutral store of value and diversification tool. Additional support came from stablecoin issuer Tether’s plan to allocate part of its portfolio to physical gold and strong retail demand in Shanghai and Hong Kong. Silver also set a new high near USD 120 an ounce, helped by investors looking for a cheaper alternative to gold, supply tightness and momentum-driven buying. Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to fall, with the US Dollar Index near 96 points, while oil prices gained another nearly 2% after US President Donald Trump warned of a tougher potential strike on Iran and urged Tehran via social media to agree to a new nuclear deal.

US stocks little changed as Fed holds rates

US stocks ended Wednesday little moved after the Fed decision. The S&P 500 slipped 0.01% to 6978.03 points after briefly trading above 7000 points for the first time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was almost flat with a gain of 0.02% at 49,015.60 points, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3% to 26,022.79 points ahead of quarterly results from Microsoft, Meta Platforms and electric vehicle maker Tesla. Chipmakers outperformed after strong results and outlooks from Texas Instruments, ASML and SK Hynix, lifting shares of Texas Instruments almost 10%, Micron about 6% and Intel 11%.

Big tech stocks diverge following quarterly earnings

Diverging after-hour share-price reactions following the release of quarterly results by several tech companies on Thursday highlighted how investors are scrutinising the balance between growth opportunities in AI and the higher costs needed to pursue them. Shares of Facebook parent company Meta jumped in after-hours trading on Wednesday after issuing a stronger-than-expected revenue outlook for the first quarter, even as it flagged sharply higher investment linked to its artificial intelligence plans. Microsoft fell nearly 7% as slower cloud growth and higher capital and lease spending weighed on sentiment. Electric-vehicle maker Tesla advanced after reporting quarterly earnings that exceeded market expectations. Apple is the next “Magnificent 7” stock to report earnings, due later Thursday.

Asian stocks mixed after tech-led rally

Asian equity markets were mixed on Thursday as recent gains in regional technology shares faded. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 0.1% higher, while Korea’s Kospi was up 1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 0.1% lower. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was 0.2% higher and mainland China’s CSI 300 was trading 0.7% higher, while India’s Nifty 50 was down 0.3%. In individual companies, Samsung Electronics reported a record fourth-quarter operating profit of KRW 20.1 trillion on Thursday, more than tripling from a year earlier as tight memory supply and strong AI server demand lifted prices and volumes. The stock nevertheless fell 0.7% on Thursday.

Bank of Canada holds rates amid trade risks

The Bank of Canada kept its overnight interest rate unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday, judging the current policy stance as appropriate even as it acknowledged unusually high uncertainty around the timing and direction of future moves. The central bank said its economic outlook is little changed from October, with headline inflation at 2.4% in December, up from 2.2% in November, while core measures have eased and recent data show softer growth, including a 0.3% monthly fall in October GDP and a rise in unemployment to 6.8%. Policymakers highlighted that the Canadian economy is undergoing a structural adjustment to trade frictions with the United States and the upcoming Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement review.

German consumer mood edges higher

German consumer sentiment improved at the start of 2026, with the GfK Consumer Climate indicator expected to rise 2.8 points to minus 24.1 for February, according to data released on Wednesday. Economic expectations also strengthened to 6.6, up 8.2 points from a year earlier, suggesting a fragile shift towards modest growth after several weak years. European stock indices closed lower on Wednesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 1%, while Germany’s DAX slipped 0.3% and France’s CAC 40 fell 1.1%. The Swiss Market Index underperformed, losing 1.3%.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from ABB, Apple, Caterpillar, Comcast, Hitachi, Honeywell, KLA, Lockheed Martin, Mastercard, Roche, Sanofi, SAP, Stryker, Thermo Fisher Scientific, and Visa.

Economic data in focus: US weekly initial jobless claims (14:30), Canadian trade balance (14:30) and US trade balance (14:30).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
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