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Inflation and growth data in focus

This week, markets will focus on a broad run of inflation, growth and activity data across the major economies, with US and European releases likely to set the tone. In the UK, April consumer price data arrive on Wednesday, while the euro area also releases April inflation figures that day and Japan publishes April national consumer price data on Friday. Growth will also be in focus, with first-quarter gross domestic product due from Switzerland on Monday, Japan on Tuesday and Germany on Friday. Purchasing Managers’ Indices for May are released on Thursday across France, Germany, the euro area, the UK and the US, offering an early read on business activity. On the corporate side, NVIDIA reports earnings on Wednesday and Walmart follows on Thursday, putting both AI chip demand and the health of the US consumer in focus.

  • Date
  • Auteur Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
  • Temps de lecture 5 minutes

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Asia-Pacific equities mostly declined on Monday after US President Donald Trump warned Iran to act quickly, reviving concern that Middle East tensions could further disrupt global oil supplies. Brent crude oil was trading 1.4% higher, around USD 111 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at USD 103, roughly 1.7% higher. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.4%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.3% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.5%, although South Korea’s Kospi reversed earlier losses to rise 0.9%. The move came as the US blockade of Iranian ports remained in place and Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz closed, while yields on Japan’s ten-year government bond climbed more than nine basis points as inflation fears intensified. The US Dollar Index remained at a higher level to start the week and gold was table around USD 4540.

China growth weakens in April

China’s economy lost momentum in April, with retail sales rising just 0.2% year-on-year, down from 1.7% in March and marking the weakest increase since December 2022, according to data released on Monday. Industrial output growth slowed to 4.1% from 5.7%, while fixed-asset investment fell 1.6% in the first four months after a 1.7% increase in January to March, as a deeper property downturn outweighed gains in infrastructure and manufacturing. The data suggested that stronger exports, which rose 14.1% in April, were not enough to offset weak domestic demand, while falling home prices and a sharp drop in property investment continued to weigh on household finances and employment. China’s urban jobless rate nevertheless eased to 5.2% from 5.4% in March, with market participants expecting Beijing to may wait for second-quarter GDP data in July before considering further stimulus.

US stocks fall as oil rises

US stocks declined on Friday as higher oil prices revived inflation concerns and pushed bond yields to their highest levels in about a year, ending Wall Street’s recent record-setting rally. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.5% to 29,125.20 points, while the S&P 500 fell 1.2% to 7408.50 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.1% to 49,526.17, leaving the Dow down 0.2% for the week. Investor sentiment was also hurt by disappointment over the outcome of US-China talks linked to the Iran war and the continued effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while chip designer Nvidia slid 4.4% after US President Trump said China had decided against buying its H200 chips. US Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the two-year yield around 4.1% and the ten-year yield at 4.6%.

European stock indices fall on inflation fears

European equities fell sharply on Friday as another rise in oil prices fuelled inflation concerns, lifted bond yields and increased pressure on rate-sensitive sectors. The EuroStoxx 50 dropped 1.8%, while Germany’s DAX lost 2.1% and France’s CAC 40 fell 1.6%. Switzerland’s SMI was little changed on Friday after it had been closed for a holiday on Thursday.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Baidu and Ryanair.

Economic data in focus: Swiss gross domestic product (09:00), Italian trade balance (10:00), Bundesbank monthly report (12:00).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
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