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Oil slumps, stocks jump as US and Iran agree ceasefire

Oil futures tumbled on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump ordered a pause to US airstrikes on Iran and announced a two-week, mutual ceasefire, saying Washington had already achieved its military goals and was close to a broader peace deal. Brent crude fell about 14% to around USD 94 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate dropped about 15% to just below USD 96, while global equities rallied. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index came under pressure, falling 0.8%. Trump said he agreed to suspend the bombing following talks with Pakistani leaders and on condition that Iran fully and safely reopens the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for about 20% of global oil shipments.

  • Date
  • Auteur Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
  • Temps de lecture 5 minutes

Mixed markets
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Gold prices rose to a three-week high on Wednesday after the ceasefire announcement, easing fears of imminent strikes on civilian infrastructure and weighing on the US dollar. Spot gold increased 2.5% to around USD 4820 per ounce, its highest level since mid-March. Silver advanced 4.5 to roughly USD 77 per ounce as investors reacted to the steep plunge in oil prices and growing expectations that Friday’s US consumer price index release will show energy-driven inflation pressures that could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Asia stocks rally on US-Iran ceasefire

Asian equity markets climbed on Wednesday. South Korea’s Kospi led regional gains with an advance of more than 6%, supported by strong rises in chip makers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 5.4% higher. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 2.7% higher, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 3.1%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 up 3.2%. In central banking news, India’s central bank kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 5.25% on Wednesday, as robust economic growth gives policymakers scope to maintain a tight stance while the war involving Iran heightens inflation risks. India’s Nifty 50 was rallied 3.8% on Wednesday. In New Zealand, the central bank also kept its official cash rate unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday, warning that higher oil prices stemming from the Middle East conflict are likely to lift inflation even as domestic economic momentum slows.

US stocks little changed before ceasefire announcement

US equities ended Tuesday’s session broadly flat after a late rebound as investors awaited the expiry of US President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran to lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipping 0.2%, the S&P 500 edging up 0.1% and the Nasdaq 100 adding a marginal gain. Apple shares narrowed steep early losses but still closed 2.1% lower after reports of technical issues in testing a foldable iPhone and possible production delays, despite indications the device could still launch in September alongside the iPhone 18 Pro models. Intel rose 4.2% on news it will join Elon Musk’s Terafab chip initiative for Tesla, SpaceX and xAI.

European stocks fall on Iran tensions

Major European equity indices fell on Tuesday as renewed threats from US President Donald Trump against Iran weighed on sentiment, with the EuroStoxx 50 down 1.1% and Switzerland’s SMI losing 1.5%. Markets focused on Trump’s ultimatum that Iran must reopen the strategically important Strait of Hormuz for oil and liquefied natural gas shipments prior to the ceasefire announcement. Media stocks were the clear outperformers after US investor Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital launched a takeover bid valuing music group Universal Music Group at about EUR 56 billion, offering EUR 30.40 per share, some 78% above the previous close. Technology shares lagged as ASML dropped 4.1% amid concerns that a proposed US "Match Act" targeting exports of certain chipmaking tools to China could hit its revenue and profit.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: French trade balance (08:45), euro-area retail sales (11:00), US crude oil inventories (16:30), Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting minutes (20:00).

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