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Trump ultimatum to Iran unnerves markets

Oil prices climbed to a multi‑month high at the end of the week as US President Donald Trump warned that nuclear negotiations with Iran have only around two weeks to succeed, against the backdrop of the largest US military build‑up in the Middle East since the Iraq War. The prospect of conflict pushed Brent crude above recent ranges and kept gold supported, while the US dollar firmed and Treasury yields edged lower as investors sought safety. Wall Street finished Thursday’s session in the red on mounting war fears, and most Asian markets were weaker on Friday apart from South Korea’s record‑setting Kospi. In Europe, equities slipped from recent highs. Later on Friday, markets will turn their attention to a packed macroeconomic calendar, including US personal consumption expenditures, US gross domestic product and global Purchasing Managers’ Indices.

  • Date
  • Auteur Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
  • Temps de lecture 5 minutes

Iran map

Oil prices climbed to a six-month high on Friday as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran intensified, with Brent crude rising above USD 72 a barrel and gaining more than 6% this week, while West Texas Intermediate traded near USD 67. The move came after US President Trump said negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme had ten to 15 days at most to succeed, amid the largest US military build-up in the Middle East since the Iraq invasion in 2003 and reports he is considering both broad and limited strikes against Iran. Gold was likewise trading higher, near USD 5020 per ounce on Friday after gaining more than 2% over the previous two sessions, as markets balanced escalating tensions between the US and Iran against uncertainty over the path of US interest rates. The US dollar strengthened slightly at the end of the week, while US Treasury yields were slightly lower across the curve, with the two‑year yield around 3.5% and the ten‑year yield near 4.1%.

US stocks fall on Iran war fears

US equities declined on Thursday as rising concerns about a potential US military strike against Iran weighed on sentiment, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.5% to 49,395.16 points and the S&P 500 slipping 0.3% to 6861.89 points, erasing the previous day’s modest rebound. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.4% to 24,797.34 points. Among individual stocks, retailer Walmart reversed early gains to close 1.4% lower after issuing a cautious outlook for 2026 despite a strong final quarter of 2025, while online marketplace operator Ebay rose just over 3% on robust fourth-quarter results. In macroeconomic data, US initial jobless claims decreased to a seasonally adjusted 206,000 in the week ended Thursday, down from 232,000 at the end of January and below market expectations, underlining a broadly stable US labour market.

South Korea stocks hit new record

South Korea’s Kospi index reached another record high on Friday, rising 2.3% as strong gains in insurers such as Samsung Life Insurance and Mirae Asset Securities, as well as defence group Hanwha Aerospace and component maker Firstec, offset weakness elsewhere in Asia. The broader region traded mostly lower after US equities fell overnight, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropping 1.1%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index losing 0.7% and mainland Chinese markets still closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. Market participants were assessing the latest Japanese inflation data showing headline price growth in January slipping below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target to 1.5% January, its lowest level since March 2022.

Swiss exports rise as imports soften

Swiss exports increased by 2.3% in January on a seasonally adjusted basis versus December, reaching CHF 23.0 billion in nominal terms and continuing the sideways pattern seen since May, while imports declined 0.9% to CHF 19.4 billion, marking a third consecutive monthly fall. The trade surplus widened to CHF 3.6 billion, driven mainly by a 4.9% rise in exports of chemical and pharmaceutical products. The Swiss SMI edging down marginally on Thursday as most other European indices suffered larger losses. The EuroStoxx 50 fell 0.7%.

EU consumer confidence remains subdued

EU consumer confidence was unchanged in February, while sentiment in the euro area improved marginally, according to a flash estimate published on Thursday by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs. The consumer confidence index stood at -11.7 points in the EU and -12.2 in the euro area, both remaining below their long-term averages. The indicator is based on survey responses from all 27 EU member states and the 21 countries using the euro, collected between 1st and 18 February. Final consumer survey data will be released with the full Business and Consumer Survey results later in the month.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Air Liquide, Danone, and Sika.

Economic data in focus: Purchasing Managers’ Indices from several of the world’s largest economies, including France (09:15), Germany (09:30), the euro area (10:00), the UK (10:30) and the US (15:45); UK retail sales (08:00), Canadian retail sales (14:30), US gross domestic product (14:30), US personal consumption expenditures (14:30), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (16:00).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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