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Oil spike keeps markets under pressure

Oil prices pulled back from an earlier spike near multi‑year highs on Monday after reports that G7 finance ministers may coordinate a release of emergency reserves, but crude remains markedly higher since the Iran conflict began and continues to unsettle global markets. Asian equities tumbled at the start of the week, with indices in Japan and South Korea leading broad regional losses as the oil surge weighed on energy‑importing economies, while slightly firmer Chinese inflation data did little to bolster sentiment. US and European stock markets closed lower on Friday amid concerns over the Middle East war, weaker US labour market data and softer euro-area growth.

  • Data
  • Autore Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
  • Tempo di lettura 5 minuto

market numbers
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Oil benchmarks pared sharp intraday gains on Monday after a report that G7 finance ministers will discuss a coordinated release of emergency petroleum reserves with the International Energy Agency. Brent crude, which had briefly surged more than 30% to an intraday high just below USD 120 a barrel, later traded near USD 106.80, while West Texas Intermediate futures eased to around USD 102.79 after also touching almost USD 120 earlier in the day, levels last seen in mid-2022. Prices have jumped more than 25% since the Iran war began about ten days ago, as US and Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities and retaliatory attacks on regional energy infrastructure and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles about one-fifth of global oil trade, effectively choked off the key route and forced producers such as the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait to cut output as storage filled up. In response, the US dollar firmed, while gold prices fell about 0.8%, trading around USD 5130 per ounce. US Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 2-year and 10-year benchmarks trading near 3.6% and 4.2%, respectively.

Asian markets plunge due to oil spike

Asian equities slumped on Monday as oil prices recorded their largest one-day jump in almost four decades, with South Korea’s Kospi dropping 6% and triggering a 20‑minute trading halt for the second time in a week, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 sliding 5.2%. The oil shock hit regional heavyweights such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, SoftBank and several Japanese chip-related stocks. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 2.9% weaker and India’s Nifty 50 was 2.4% lower. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was trading 1.5% down and mainland China’s CSI 300 was 0.8% lower, following the release of inflation data. China’s consumer price index rose 1.3% year-on-year in February, up from 0.2% in January and reaching its highest level in more than three years, according to data released on Monday, as Lunar New Year travel and spending drove sharp increases in services such as airfares and gold jewellery. Beijing is targeting GDP growth of between 4.5% and 5% this year and consumer inflation of around 2%, and the market expects the People’s Bank of China to retain room for further easing unless the oil shock proves significantly stronger and more persistent than anticipated.

US inflation and growth data in focus

This week, markets will keep an eye on developments in the Middle East while digesting a dense slate of US macroeconomic data that sheds light on both inflation dynamics and the resilience of economic growth. On Wednesday, the US consumer price index (CPI) for February is released, followed on Friday by the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), for January, which together help clarify the inflation backdrop for future monetary policy decisions. Also on Friday, third-quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) as well as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and University of Michigan consumer sentiment will further inform views on underlying demand and the labour market. In Europe, February CPI from Germany (Wednesday), France and Spain (Friday) provide an update on the disinflation process in the region’s largest economies. The UK publishes a batch of January GDP, industrial and manufacturing production and trade data on Friday. From Asia, Japanese fourth-quarter GDP figures on Tuesday and a series of Chinese price and trade data early in the week will be watched for signs of stabilisation in growth and prices.

US stocks fall on Iran war and AI worries

US equities closed lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping almost 1% to 47,501.55 points and the S&P 500 losing 1.3%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.5% to 24,643.02 points and ended the week 1.3% lower. Market sentiment deteriorated as US President Donald Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and rising oil prices stoked inflation and growth concerns, although weaker US labour market data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could move towards interest rate cuts. US nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, defying market expectations for job gains and pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4%, according to labour market data released on Friday, while earlier months were revised down to show weaker employment growth than previously reported. Technology shares with exposure to artificial intelligence came under pressure after reports that software group Oracle and AI developer OpenAI had abandoned plans to expand a flagship AI data centre due to protracted financing talks and changing requirements, weighing on stocks such as Oracle, Meta Platforms and Nvidia.

European equities slide, GDP growth slows

Major European stock indices closed sharply lower on Friday after a week of war in Iran, with the euro area benchmark EuroStoxx 50 falling 1.1% to 5719.90 points and ending the week 6.8% down, while the Swiss SMI dropped 1.5%, also recording a sizeable weekly decline. Oil and gas stocks were among the few gainers, with Eni, TotalEnergies, BP and Shell rising alongside defence names such as Rheinmetall, Safran, Thales and BAE Systems, while most other sectors retreated and many travel and leisure shares surrendered early gains amid concerns over disrupted air traffic and regional instability. In macroeconomic data, seasonally adjusted GDP in the euro area and the EU grew 0.2% in the fourth quarter compared with the previous three months, slowing from 0.3% and 0.4% respectively in the third quarter, according to Eurostat data released this week, while full-year 2025 growth reached 1.4% in the euro area and 1.5% in the EU.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: German manufacturing production (08:00), SECO Swiss consumer sentiment (09:00) and Sentix investor confidence for the eurozone (10:30).

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