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Stocks rebound as oil slumps on Iran hopes

Global markets started the week on a stronger footing as comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting the war with Iran could end soon triggered a sharp reversal in oil prices and lifted risk sentiment. US equities finished Monday’s session higher and volatility eased after an early sell-off, while Asian stock markets followed with broad-based gains on Tuesday, led by a strong rebound in South Korea and Japan. Oil prices, which had spiked on fears of prolonged supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, fell back notably as traders reassessed the risk of an extended shock and looked ahead to a possible coordinated release of emergency reserves by G7 countries. A record Chinese trade surplus and firmer Swiss consumer sentiment provided additional macro signals at the start of the week.

  • Data
  • Autore Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
  • Tempo di lettura 5 minuto

Wall Street green light
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Oil prices fell sharply to start the week as markets weighed remarks from Trump about the war with Iran and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude was trading about 4.3% lower, just below USD 95 per barrel, on Tuesday and US crude was down 3.8% at roughly USD 91, after both benchmarks had briefly climbed above USD 100 and surged around 20% a day earlier on fears of prolonged supply disruptions. Prices initially retreated when Trump suggested in a phone interview and press conference that the conflict with Iran could end “very soon”. Trump’s statements temporarily eased concerns about the supply shock even as traders struggled to gauge the impact of an unprecedented full closure of the world’s key oil chokepoint, while G7 energy ministers prepared to discuss a possible coordinated release of 300 million to 400 million barrels from emergency reserves following talks among the group’s finance ministers. In other markets, the US dollar retreated slightly, gold prices were climbing, trading around USD 5180 per ounce, and silver also advanced. US Treasury yields fell slightly.

Asia stocks rebound

Asian equities advanced strongly on Tuesday. South Korea’s Kospi led gains with an increase of more than 5% at the open, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose about 3% after a 5.2% drop in the previous session and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added roughly 1.1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 2%, helped by Tencent shares, which rose over 6% on Tuesday as the Chinese internet group launched WorkBuddy, a new locally run AI agent with capabilities similar to the widely followed OpenClaw system. Mainland China’s CSI 300 was also up 1.2% after data released Tuesday showed China’s trade surplus in the combined January-February period widened to a record USD 213.62 billion, highlighting robust external demand despite ongoing trade frictions with the US.

US equities rise on Iran war hopes

US stocks advanced on Monday after Trump's comments fuelled hopes that the war against Iran may be nearing an end. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.5% higher at 47,740.80 points after hitting its lowest level since late November in early trading, while the broader S&P 500 gained 0.8% to 6795.99 points and the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.3% to 24,967.25 points. Cyclical stocks and chipmakers led gains, with Caterpillar, Nvidia and AMD posting strong advances, while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) eased back from its highest level since April.

Swiss consumer sentiment improves slightly

Swiss consumer confidence rose to -30 points in February, an increase of 3 points compared with the same month last year, according to data published by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs on Monday. Sub-indices for expected economic development, past financial situation and the suitability of the moment for major purchases all moved above their February 2025 levels, indicating a modest improvement in households’ assessment of the economic environment. Expectations for households’ future financial situation, however, were little changed from a year earlier, suggesting that consumers remain cautious despite the slight overall uptick in sentiment. The Swiss Market Index underperformed other European indices on Monday, dropping 1.1%. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.5%, while Germany’s DAX lost 0.8% and France’s CAC 40 declined 1%.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from BioNTech, Oracle, and Volkswagen.

Economic data in focus: German trade balance (08:00), French trade balance (08:45) and US existing home sales (15:00).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
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