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Iran deadline and data deluge test sentiment

This week, markets focus on a heavy slate of US data that will shape the policy outlook, led by Thursday’s releases of GDP, corporate profits, income and spending, PCE and core PCE inflation, and jobless claims. US price and demand dynamics stay in focus on Friday with March CPI, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and February factory orders, while global demand signals come from inflation prints in China, Mexico and Brazil and key euro area and German activity data. Investors will also scrutinize Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and speeches from Federal Reserve officials for further clues on the US monetary policy path.

  • Date
  • Author Dominique Stutz, Investment Writer
  • Reading time 5 minutes

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US-Iran: tensions over Hormuz ceasefire plan

US President Donald Trump intensified pressure on Iran over the weekend with an aggressive social media post on Sunday threatening large‑scale strikes on the country’s power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened to marine traffic by his Tuesday evening deadline, as the war entered its second month. The ultimatum followed confirmation from Washington that the final crew member from a US F‑15E fighter jet shot down over Iran last week had been rescued in a mountainous region, albeit seriously injured, and drew criticism from Democratic senator Tim Kaine, who argued that such rhetoric was irresponsible, could increase risks for captured US personnel and underscored the lack of a clear strategy or allied backing. Iranian state media at the weekend claimed multiple US aircraft were destroyed during the rescue operation and warned that Tehran would escalate attacks on regional oil and civilian infrastructure if the US and Israel targeted similar facilities in Iran.

Trump on Monday then described as not yet acceptable a proposal for a 45‑day ceasefire that is being discussed among the two sides and regional mediators ahead of his Strait of Hormuz deadline, even as he acknowledged what he called a significant step from Tehran. While Iranian officials have publicly rejected any purely temporary truce and instead sent via Pakistan a 10‑point response centred on safe passage through the strait, reconstruction and sanctions relief, they have also moved domestically to formalise the collection of tolls on vessels even though traffic remains largely blocked. The White House has emphasised that the 45‑day plan is only one of several options under consideration, while signalling that "Operation Epic Fury" could be expanded with extensive strikes on Iranian energy and transport infrastructure if no agreement is reached by the deadline.

Asia markets mixed amid Iran tensions

Asia-Pacific equities traded mixed on Tuesday as investors weighed heightened geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict and US President Donald Trump’s renewed ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by the evening deadline. Regional performance was mixed, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rising 1.4%. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and China’s CSI 300 were trading around the 0% mark, and Hong Kong remained closed for the Easter holiday. Oil prices extended their advance, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising 3.4% to USD 116.20 and Brent adding 1.7% to USD 111.59 per barrel, reflecting supply concerns linked to the five-week-old conflict.

US stocks little changed amid geopolitical tensions

US equity markets traded almost flat on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial edging up 0.4% to 46,669.88 points, the broad S&P 500 gaining 0.4% to 6611.83 points and the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 rising 0.6% to 24,192.17 points, as lower trading volumes were expected with European markets still closed after Easter. Investor sentiment was dominated on Monday by the conflict between the US and Iran, where hopes for a proposed 45-day ceasefire contrasted with Tehran’s demand for a permanent end to the war and media reports of possible US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. The latest US labour market report released on Friday showed a stronger-than-anticipated increase of 178,000 non-farm payrolls, well above economists’ expectations of 65,000, which reduced expectations for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, even though the ISM services index fell more than forecast.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: US ADP National Employment Report (14:15) and US durable goods orders (14:30).

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