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US labour data in focus as markets pause

US equity markets ended Thursday mixed as cyclical and industrial stocks supported the Dow while profit-taking in technology shares weighed on the Nasdaq ahead of the closely watched US labour market report due on Friday. Asian equities were trading only slightly higher on Friday, with Japan outperforming as a weaker yen buoyed export-oriented names. Swiss inflation remained subdued and euro-area unemployment stable, leaving European stock indices little changed on Thursday. The US dollar edged higher on Friday, approaching a one‑month high, as investors awaited the US labour data and a Supreme Court ruling expected as soon as Friday on US President Donald Trump’s use of emergency tariff powers. In energy markets, oil prices extended recent gains as traders assessed renewed supply risks in Russia and Iran.

Date 9 January 2026
Author Shane Strowmatt, Senior Investment Writer
Reading time 5 minutes

The Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered on Thursday, rising 0.6% to 49,266.11 points after reaching a record high the previous day, supported by gains in traditional industrial names such as home improvement retailer Home Depot and consumer goods groups Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble. The broader S&P 500 finished virtually unchanged at 6921.46 points, while the technology-focused Nasdaq 100 fell 0.6% to 25,507.10 points as investors took profits in recently strong semiconductor shares ahead of Friday’s US labour market report for December. Macroeconomic data releases showed the US trade deficit narrowed to USD 29.4 billion in the latest reporting period, markedly lower than both the previous shortfall of USD 48.1 billion and projections for a USD 58.1 billion gap. The improvement represents an USD 18.7 billion reduction in the deficit versus the prior period and an even larger positive surprise compared with expectations, indicating a stronger trade balance than markets had anticipated. While the US continues to import more than it exports, the smaller deficit is viewed as supportive for the US dollar, as better-than-expected trade data typically bolsters the currency.

US jobless claims edge higher

New applications for US unemployment benefits increased to a seasonally adjusted 208,000 in the week ended December 27, up 8000 from the prior week, according to data released by the Labour Department on Thursday. Layoffs remain low by historical standards despite volatile weekly figures around the year-end holidays, with employers cautious about hiring amid tariff uncertainty and rapid adoption of artificial intelligence rather than engaging in broad-based job cuts. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that announced layoffs by US-based companies jumped 58% in 2025 to a five-year high of 1.206 million, driven mainly by federal government and technology-sector cost reductions, while planned hiring fell 34% to 507,647, the weakest level since 2010. Market participants will compare this data with the government's non-farm payrolls report due later Friday for a broader picture of the US labour market.

Trump plans large mortgage bond purchases

US President Trump said on Thursday that he is instructing the government to buy USD 200 billion of mortgage-backed securities via Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in an effort to push down mortgage rates and ease housing affordability pressures. The move comes as home prices have continued to outpace incomes amid a long-running construction shortfall, leaving many renters unable to buy and existing owners locked into low-rate mortgages obtained when borrowing costs were nearer 3%. Economists quoted in the article cautioned that such purchases might only trim about 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points from the average 30-year mortgage rate, currently around 6.2%, and would not resolve structural issues such as limited housing supply. Analysts added that any rate relief could marginally boost demand but is unlikely to significantly ease broader constraints in the US housing market ahead of November’s midterm elections.

Asia stocks muted as China inflation climbs

Asian equities made only modest gains on Friday, with most markets tracking a mixed Wall Street close as investors awaited key US nonfarm payrolls data later in the day to gauge the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Japan outperformed the region, where the Nikkei 225 rose 1.6% as a weaker yen lifted export-focused stocks, while South Korea’s KOSPI was 0.8% higher and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was essentially flat. Official figures from China released on Friday showed consumer price inflation accelerating to 0.8% year on year in December, up from slower previous readings and the fastest pace in nearly three years, while prices rose 0.2% on the month and factory-gate deflation eased. The inflation data helped China’s CSI 300 edge 0.5% higher, reinforcing expectations that the world’s second-largest economy may be emerging from a prolonged deflationary phase that has weighed on growth, earnings and consumption. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was 0.2% higher

Swiss inflation steady at 0.2% in 2025

Swiss consumer prices were unchanged in December compared with November, with the Consumer Price Index holding at 106.9 points, while annual inflation for the month eased to 0.1% year-on-year, according to data released by the Federal Statistical Office on Thursday. Average annual inflation slowed markedly to 0.2% in 2025, down from 1.1% last year and 2.1% in 2023. The modest increase in 2025 was driven mainly by higher costs for rents, chocolate and restaurant and café meals, whereas prices for electricity, petrol, medicines and second-hand cars declined; domestic prices rose 0.7% on average, while imported goods became 1.6% cheaper. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, which allows comparison with the European Union, increased 0.1% on the month and 0.2% year-on-year in December. the Swiss Market Index advanced 0.1% on Thursday.

Euro-area jobless rate edges up

Euro-area unemployment stood at 6.3% in November, marginally below October’s 6.4% but slightly above the 6.2% recorded a year earlier, according to Eurostat figures released on Thursday. The EU-wide unemployment rate remained at 6% in November, up from 5.8% in November last year, with 13.225 million people unemployed in the EU, of whom 10.937 million were in the euro area. Youth unemployment stayed elevated at 15.1% in the EU and 14.6% in the euro area, both just below October levels but still higher than a year earlier in absolute terms. Joblessness among women in the EU was 6.2% in November compared with 5.8% for men, while in the euro area the rate for women eased to 6.5% and the rate for men was stable at 6.1%. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.3%, weighed down by losses in some large caps, while other major European indices barely moved on Thursday.

Oil prices supported by supply concerns

Oil prices rose further in Asian trading on Friday, extending gains of more than 4% from Thursday as markets weighed the risk of supply disruptions in Russia and Iran. Prices regained levels seen before US military action in Venezuela last week, while concerns about a rapid increase in Venezuelan output eased after the US Senate backed a resolution limiting US President Donald Trump’s ability to take further military action in the country and analysts highlighted political instability and ageing infrastructure as constraints on production.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: German trade balance (08:00), SECO Swiss consumer sentiment (09:00), Swiss unemployment rate (09:00), Swiss foreign currency reserves (09:00), euro-area retail sales (11:00), Canadian unemployment rate (14:30), US nonfarm payrolls (14:30), US unemployment rate (14:30), US building permits (14:30), US housing starts (14:30) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (16:00).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
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