LGT Private Banking Europe House View

US and European stocks dipped on Thursday as the latest inflation data out of the world’s largest economy showed a higher-than-expected rise in consumer prices, fuelling concerns over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next steps. Market sentiment turned cautious ahead of key economic data and the...

US stocks surged on Wednesday as investors digested the Federal Reserve's (Fed) dovish stance revealed in its September meeting minutes. The major US indices advanced with the S&P 500 reaching an all-time high. Asian markets followed suit, trading higher on Thursday. Traders are now turning...

US technology stocks led a market rally on Tuesday, pushing major indices higher despite mixed global economic signals. Asian markets remained volatile on Wednesday, with China's Shanghai Composite index experiencing a significant drop before recovering somewhat late in the session. Meanwhile...

Chinese stocks surged on Tuesday as mainland markets reopened after a week-long holiday, driven by optimism over recent government stimulus measures, while stocks in Hong Kong fell sharply. The CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices posted significant gains, reaching multi-year highs.

US stock markets rallied on Friday following a robust labour market report, which investors interpreted as a sign of economic strength, reducing the likelihood of further large interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. US Treasury yields shot up to finish the week, with...

US services sector activity surged in September, suggesting strong economic momentum and hinting the Federal Reserve (Fed) may have some flexibility in the pace of further interest rates. US equities slipped on Thursday and the US dollar approached a six-week high. Oil prices remained steady...

Oil prices surged on Thursday as the escalating conflict in the Middle East raised fears of supply disruptions, despite data showing a well-supplied market. US equities saw modest gains on Wednesday, while Asian markets traded mixed, with Japanese stocks rallying on a weaker yen. Investors are...

Geopolitical tensions surged after an Iranian missile attack on Israel, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict. This escalation drove oil prices higher and briefly spiked gold, while the CBOE Volatility Index, which acts as a gauge of market fear, shot up. US and European stock...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated on Monday that the Fed expects to implement two more interest rate cuts by the end of 2024, leading to a mixed reaction on markets. Despite initial pressure, US stocks managed to close in positive territory, while Asian trading was limited on...

This week's focus is on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statements in a speech tonight, or the purchasing managers' surveys from the Eurozone, the UK or the US (Tuesday), as well as the consumer prices of the eurozone (Thursday) and, last but not least, the US labour market report, which is...

The US economy remains stable with solid consumption, and the Federal Reserve has begun a rate-cutting cycle to support growth. While we maintain our US equities "Overweight", we introduce an "Underweight" in Japanese equities. Fixed income stays "Underweight", but we see value in government...

The sharp rise in equity volatility at the beginning of August proved to be a correction. We shift US equities to "Overweight", while fixed income remains “Underweight“, and we are taking profits in gold. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in September, easing market headwinds and...

With the overall picture remaining constructive, we maintain our "Overweight" in equities and "Underweight" in fixed income. Fundamentally, stronger electricity demand growth, low valuations and the prospect of an interest rate turnaround offer attractive entry points in the utilities sector...

The solid but slowing growth environment should continue for the time being, albeit with regional differences, and the risk of recession seems to have been pushed further out. The equity market offers a more attractive risk/reward profile than the credit market, with the US stock market in...

Geopolitical tensions, robust US growth, rising oil prices and stubborn inflation are pushing equity and bond markets into negative territory for 2024. We are temporarily downgrading US equities to "Underweight" and reducing our preference for ILS investments to "Underweight".

The current economic and financial market environment is highly uncertain, with ge­opolitics, central banks and elections all making the next few months difficult to navigate. In this House View’s main article, we take a break from the day-to-day market environment and instead focus on our...

In this month's House View, we review some of our "Outlook 2024" forecasts and take a look at the latest developments in the financial markets. In our Macro article, we discuss the challenges faced by the manufacturing sector in recent years, highlight the factors behind this development and...

Major asset classes have started the new year on diverging paths without pricing in a uniform macroeconomic environment for 2024. To hedge against the risk of a hard landing, we would prefer government bonds with longer maturities. Overall, we consider the opportunities and risks to be balanced...

Global growth rolls into 2024 in a sluggish pace, leaving the burden of driving market optimism to disinflation and hopes for "sooner" and "sharper" interest rate cuts. While the probability of our current "high for longer" base case has indeed receded, we still think it will take a prolonged...

The Fed and the ECB will have to maintain their tight monetary regimes for longer. In the absence of an unexpected recessionary dynamic, decisive central bank rate cuts are therefore unlikely in the first half of 2024. Following the sharp rise in government bonds, we have decided to reduce our...

French bonds are once again in the spotlight and, for the first time since 2007, are perceived by the market as riskier than Spanish government bonds - despite Spain having a credit rating three notches lower. Simultaneously, the interest rate spread over German bonds has widened from around 50...

On September 24, People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng announced an extensive monetary easing package, including rate cuts, RRR reductions, and mortgage policy relaxations, surpassing market expectations. Immediate market reactions saw a surge in stock markets, bond rallies, and...

As the world's most competitive economy to date, the European Union has a problem: its main competitors, China and the US, no longer want to play the game. In his report "The future of European competitiveness", Mario Draghi, a grandee of EU politics who, as former head of the European Central...

September often brings increased volatility to equity markets, and this year is no different with several significant events poised to influence capital markets. Critical labour market data in the US and the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the US Federal Reserve...

At the Kansas City Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled potential US interest rate cuts, citing a cooling labour market and easing inflation. Powell’s remarks highlight a shift towards a more flexible, "data-dependent" policy approach. With the Fed’s...

2024 continues the alarming trend of record-breaking global temperatures, surpassing previous highs set just last year. With July 22 marking the hottest day ever recorded, the persistent rise in temperatures underscores the urgent need for climate action. As extreme weather events become more...

Equity markets experienced some turbulence and increased volatility during the second quarter 2024 earnings season, making it somewhat difficult to interpret the reaction of individual stocks to the results. We take a closer look at what happened and come to three key conclusions: The growth...

Financial turbulence in Japan's markets has escalated, with the yen rebounding against the dollar and Japanese stocks plunging into a bear market. The Bank of Japan's decision to raise the policy rate to 0.25% and reduce Japanese Government Bond purchases triggered a significant drop in bond...

Prior to the start of the second quarter corporate reporting season, we published an issue of The Strategist on expectations for the S&P 500 (The Strategist 15 July 2024). We highlighted the following factors: 1) the second-quarter reporting season is one of the most exciting of the year, 2) a...

The first 2024 presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump marked a critical juncture for Biden’s re-election campaign. Biden’s performance during the debate was notably poor; he appeared hesitant, his speech was sometimes unclear, and his responses did not alleviate concerns...