LGT Private Banking Europe House View

Russia and Ukraine have agreed to halt attacks on sea and energy targets, as announced by the United States. European stocks saw gains across the board on Tuesday. US tech stocks also rose on Tuesday, but the broader markets were mixed. In Asia, stocks are trading mostly higher on Wednesday...

US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that while new automobile tariffs will be introduced on 2nd April, not all levies will be imposed immediately, with some countries potentially receiving exemptions. This move, signalling possible flexibility, led to a broad increase in US stocks.

Market participants are set to closely monitor Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) and gross domestic product (GDP) data from major economies this week. On Monday, Purchasing Managers’ Indices from France, Germany, the euro area, the UK, and the US will provide insights into economic activity in...

The Swiss National Bank's decision to cut its key interest rate by 0.25% on Thursday, citing low inflationary pressure, led to a decline in the Swiss franc and a rise in the SMI. The gain in Swiss equities contrasted with the broader downward trend in European stocks on Thursday. Meanwhile, US...

The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday, citing uncertainty from President Trump's import tariffs, which have led to higher inflation and slower growth. US stock markets closed higher following the Fed's cautious stance. European stocks also closed mostly higher on...

Germany's Bundestag approved significant fiscal reforms on Tuesday, lifting European equity markets. German stocks led regional gains. In the US, stocks declined ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, while Asian markets traded mixed on Wednesday. Gold prices continue to push...

US stock markets continued their upward momentum on Monday, buoyed by a rise in retail sales. At the same time, more weak manufacturing data raised expectations for future interest rate cuts. Asian markets followed suit on Tuesday, with significant gains led by Hong Kong tech stocks. European...

Asian markets were mostly higher on Monday, buoyed by gains in Japan and Korea, while mainland Chinese stocks lagged despite new government measures to boost consumption. European and US stocks ended last week on a positive note, recovering from earlier losses. This week, investors will closely...

US stock markets experienced significant losses on Thursday as economic concerns resurfaced, particularly affecting technology stocks. Investor anxiety was heightened by the potential for another round of tit-for-tat tariffs after US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on European...

US technology stocks recovered on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq-100 leading gains as inflation in the US eased in February. Fears surrounding the state of the global economy, given the unpredictability of US trade policy, crept back in on Thursday, with Asian markets trading lower.

Growing uncertainties and an unsettled global economy are shaping our current investment strategies. In particular, the rather erratic US trade policy of the new Trump administration is having a significant impact on the global economy, leading to unpredictable economic outcomes and a stronger...

As 2025 begins, the global economy stands on relatively solid ground, though growth remains uneven across regions. We witness an economic landscape heavily influenced by persistent inflation and stringent monetary policies. The re-election of Donald Trump introduces both opportunities and...

We maintain our pro-cyclical stance in the run-up to 2025 and leave our tactical positioning unchanged. Our economic forecast remains steady, but the incoming Trump administration introduces an element of uncertainty. We favour US equities for earnings growth and see catch-up potential in...

"Trumponomics 2.0" has been the dominant theme in capital markets since Trump’s election victory. In his second term, the administration is likely to focus on tax cuts, spending cuts and trade protectionism. In the short term, these measures could boost investment, consumption and the labour...

We maintain our risk-on positioning and confirm our tactical "Overweight" in global equity, with a focus on US equity markets. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the US elections, we reduce the magnitude of the US equity "Overweight". In fixed income, we increase the duration of US...

The US economy remains stable with solid consumption, and the Federal Reserve has begun a rate-cutting cycle to support growth. While we maintain our US equities "Overweight", we introduce an "Underweight" in Japanese equities. Fixed income stays "Underweight", but we see value in government...

The sharp rise in equity volatility at the beginning of August proved to be a correction. We shift US equities to "Overweight", while fixed income remains “Underweight“, and we are taking profits in gold. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in September, easing market headwinds and...

With the overall picture remaining constructive, we maintain our "Overweight" in equities and "Underweight" in fixed income. Fundamentally, stronger electricity demand growth, low valuations and the prospect of an interest rate turnaround offer attractive entry points in the utilities sector...

The solid but slowing growth environment should continue for the time being, albeit with regional differences, and the risk of recession seems to have been pushed further out. The equity market offers a more attractive risk/reward profile than the credit market, with the US stock market in...

Geopolitical tensions, robust US growth, rising oil prices and stubborn inflation are pushing equity and bond markets into negative territory for 2024. We are temporarily downgrading US equities to "Underweight" and reducing our preference for ILS investments to "Underweight".

Central bank chair is a tough job at the best of times. Jerome Powell’s Fed will be remembered as the Fed that left rates at record lows for too long when inflation raged, and subsequently tried to engineer a post-Covid soft landing (quite successfully for most of the normalisation phase). This...

After four of the "Magnificent Seven" - Tesla, Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Apple - presented their quarterly figures last week, it is a good time for an initial assessment of the Q4 2024 reporting season. The preliminary conclusion is that the usual game is working again this quarter: after...

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently raised its policy rate for the first time since last summer, resuming a gradual withdrawal of its long-standing monetary stimulus. Although the announcement was accompanied by relatively dovish guidance, we interpret the central bank’s stance as leaning more...

As the world watches the transition of power in the United States and worries about import tariffs, Europe faces its own political changes. Germany heads to the polls on 23 February after its coalition government collapsed in November 2024. This election could be crucial for the country's economy.

Just before Christmas, Google caused a stir when the company unveiled a quantum computer with the new "Willow" chip and demonstrated its superiority over conventional computers. In less than five minutes, it performed a calculation that would take one of the fastest supercomputers ten...

The third quarter earnings season is winding down. Here's a summary of the key takeaways.

In a week, the citizens of the USA will once again decide who will lead the country for the next four years. After President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal as the Democratic candidate in July, Kamala Harris brought new momentum to the race for the White House. With her, a woman could hold...

Polls on the US election continue to show a close race. What consequences would a Trump or Harris victory have for the global economy? Donald Trump's proposed tariff policy aims to strengthen American manufacturing by imposing high import tariffs, particularly on Chinese goods, which could...

In the second half of 2024, key economic trends emerged, shaping the global economic outlook. Disinflation returned on both sides of the Atlantic, the US labour market cooled further with slower job creation and falling wage inflation, and central banks began gradually easing their previously...

French bonds are once again in the spotlight and, for the first time since 2007, are perceived by the market as riskier than Spanish government bonds - despite Spain having a credit rating three notches lower. Simultaneously, the interest rate spread over German bonds has widened from around 50...