With the world's attention focused on the high tech sector and digitalisation, a long-overlooked field is flourishing quietly in the background. Despite, or perhaps because of, the swift spread of artificial intelligence and a renewed tilt towards economic protectionism, the skilled trades are edging their way to a renaissance.
Skilled trades have been an integral part of human civilisation since its earliest days. Across cultures and centuries, societies have relied on people who could shape raw materials into tools, structures and objects that endure. The figure of the "maker" (homo faber) - the person who transforms the physical world - was long central to how communities built their homes, organised their work and imagined their future.
In the 1950s, however, political philosopher Hannah Arendt put forward the idea that these people who create lasting things risk dying out. In "The Human Condition", she contrasts the creative "maker" whose work shapes the world, with the worker whose efforts serve only the immediate need to survive. Arendt feared that the modern industrial economy, obsessed with productivity and efficiency, would marginalise the creative, skilled tradesperson and reduce society to a group of labourers performing repetitive tasks to survive.
But despite today's rapid advances in automation and increasingly sophisticated production technologies, Arendt's vision of the future has yet to materialise. The economic environment in which her "labouring animal" seemed destined to thrive - a globalised order built on frictionless trade and relentless competition - is now coming under pressure. Protectionist policies, trade wars and new tariff barriers are reshaping the landscape.
And although many economists are concerned about the economic consequences, these shifts also carry promise for skilled trades and crafts. While tariffs make imported goods more expensive, they also make certain domestically produced goods more competitive. And with manufacturing, assembly and parts of the supply chain being brought back to domestic markets, demand for qualified tradespeople is rising. This in turn has elevated the standing of vocational training and technical colleges - to the point that even the US is considering stronger investment and funding for this kind of training. The prospects for many skilled trades may therefore be brighter today than they have been for some time.
A second driver of demand for skilled craftsmanship is the availability of increasingly capable artificial intelligence. While AI may displace large numbers of knowledge and information workers, its impact on skilled trades remains limited. Yes, AI and chatbots can help a roofer inspect and diagnose a problem: a drone flight over a damaged roof, for example, can feed images into a model that calculates dimensions and suggests which materials the roofer requires. But we are still far from a world in which AI or robots can unblock a clogged toilet in an emergency, replace a broken lock, install a custom-made kitchen or bathroom, rewire an old building, fit a heat pump or air conditioning system, or curate and maintain an English landscape garden. These tasks involve singular, tactile, often unpredictable challenges - the very things automation struggles with.
Unsurprisingly, the demand for skilled workers is not only holding steady but rising. This comes against the backdrop of a long-standing shortage that has been exacerbated by the pandemic. While the DIY enthusiasts kept hardware stores busy during lockdowns, tradespeople saw activity drop sharply as restrictions limited their mobility. According to McKinsey, the situation in the US has become acute, driven by rising demand and limited supply. Major national infrastructure projects approved and funded by Congress, industry's shift towards cleaner energy and a buoyant construction sector - including the conversion of vacant office buildings into residential space - have sharply increased the need for skilled labour.
By the end of 2023, the US construction industry alone had 347,000 unfilled positions. The metalworking industry faced an even deeper shortage, with 584,000 vacancies for trained welders, solderers, punchers and smiths. The electrical trades are similarly affected. McKinsey notes that this sector is particularly exposed to demographic pressures, with 30 % of unionised electricians set to retire within the next decade. According to the National Electrical Contractors Association, 70 % of supervisors in the electrical industry are baby boomers, meaning that finding enough people to replace them will likely prove difficult. Especially as many young people continue to feel there is a stigma attached to vocational training and so instead choose to follow their parents' advice and pursue a university degree
Yet a university degree does not necessarily lead to greater prosperity. In Germany, where - according to the business magazine brand eins - one million craft businesses employing 5.6 million people generated EUR 800 billion in 2023, a certified master craftsperson earns on average EUR 4,892 per month as an employee, more than the average university graduate with a bachelor's degree. Over a lifetime, tradespeople often fare better too: they begin earning at 18, while graduates often spend years studying before receiving their first paycheque.
In the United States, where tuition fees at elite universities are notoriously high - this insight is already shaping behaviour. As the Wall Street Journal reported in "How Gen Z is Becoming the Toolbelt Generation", enrolment at technical and vocational-focused community colleges has risen steadily for three consecutive years - increasing by almost 16 % last year alone.
Meanwhile, enrolments across the entire spectrum of four-year college programmes are stagnating. According to the Wall Street Journal, young people are drawn to the trades not only by rising starting salaries and solid median incomes - the US construction sector averages USD 69,200 per year - but also by uncertainty about how AI will impact the labour market. For many, skilled trades offer long-term security. And thanks to the tangible results of their work as welders, electricians or construction specialists, Gen Z's new cohort of tradespeople also experience a sense of purpose and fulfilment on the job.
At the same time, certain craft-adjacent professions have developed a distinctive cultural appeal. Boutique microbreweries producing speciality beers, influencer-friendly hair salons, artisanal distilleries, specialty coffee roasters, organic butcheries and chef-driven restaurants have all become fashionable - and with them, the professional skills that underpin this kind of entrepreneurial craft. In "Masters of Craft", sociologist Richard E. Ocejo argues that this "hipster revival" of artisanal work has begun to spill over into more traditional trades as well. (He cautions against misperceptions regarding the financial prospects of this profession when viewed through the lens of hipster glasses.)
This trend is particularly evident in the booming market for artisanal craftwork, which spans everything from jewellery, textiles, ceramics and woodworking to metalwork and designer objects that beautify daily life. According to a March report by market research firm Future Market Insights (FMI), the global handicrafts market is expected to reach nearly USD 428 billion this year. With rising tourism, a growing appetite for home renovation and interior decoration, and an online sales infrastructure that greatly simplifies distribution, FMI forecasts a market value for this segment of USD 1.16 trillion by 2035 - supported by double-digit annual growth rates.
Forecasts can, of course, be wrong. But what's to stop auto mechanics, domestic service providers, builders or electricians from enjoying a lift in visibility and appeal - and from benefiting from new waves of innovation within their own professions?
In the United States, trade associations are seizing the moment. They are supporting the sector through initiatives such as the Skilled Trades Advisory Council, Home Depot's "Path to Pro" virtual training platform and Angi.com (formerly Angie's List), which connects skilled tradespeople with projects. All aim to elevate the reputation of the trades and strengthen the pipeline of apprenticeships and training - from subsidised courses and supervised internships to closer collaboration between training institutions and industry.
These efforts are receiving support at the highest political levels. Inspired by the German and Swiss dual-education models, policymakers in Washington are placing vocational training firmly back on the agenda. Think tanks such as American Compass are advocating a revitalisation of apprenticeships. And last autumn, Switzerland and the United States signed a bilateral exchange programme enabling apprenticeships and internships across both countries - an initiative launched under the Biden administration and continued under the current government.
Skilled tradespeople have been part of the fabric of human history since antiquity, long valued for their ingenuity and innovation. After losing ground with the rise of manufacturing and the consumer economy, they now appear to not only be reclaiming their earlier place in society, but to also be entering a new and revitalised chapter in the practice of their craft.
