Market view How we see the markets

Media reports about blasts in Iran believed to be Israeli missiles increased uncertainty on capital markets. Gold briefly shot up and oil was also trading higher. In addition to geopolitics, higher rates pressured stocks markets at the end of the week.

US stocks continued to fall midweek, dragged down by chipmakers, while Europe closed mostly higher on Wednesday and Asian markets were making solid gains across the board on Thursday. Inflation data out of Europe bolstered hopes that the European Central Bank (ECB) may begin cutting rates at...

Speeches from the leaders of some of the world’s largest central banks on Tuesday painted a picture of diverging monetary policy paths in the US and Europe. While Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell suggested the central bank may need to keep rates higher for long to achieve its 2%...

The Chinese economy grew faster than economists had expected in the first quarter of the year, but the economic expansion wasn’t enough to keep markets in positive territory early in the week. Asian stocks continued to slide on Tuesday following losses on US equity markets on Monday, as the...

A cocktail of geopolitical developments, concerns about sticky inflation in the US and a poor start to the first-quarter earnings season were putting pressure on equity markets to start the week. Stocks spiralled downward at the end of last week after bank earnings in the US failed to convince...

The European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged at record highs but made it clear that an interest rate cut could be imminent in the language of its statement on Thursday. The euro fell versus the dollar after the announcement and European stocks finished the day lower. US equity...

US stocks slumped while yields on US government debt shot up after higher-than-expected inflation data threw cold water on traders’ hopes for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) any time soon. The Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged for a sixth consecutive time on Wednesday...

Markets were mostly down as traders positioned themselves ahead of US inflation figures due out later on Wednesday. European equities fell on Tuesday while US equities just managed to squeeze out gains late in the session. Asian trading was mixed after ratings agency Fitch downgraded its...

US equity markets moved little to start the week while Asian markets were mixed on Tuesday with little macroeconomic or geopolitical news to sway sentiment decisively. Treasury yields kept equity gains in check while industrial metals were up on hopes of a global manufacturing rebound.

Job creation in the US jumped in March, coming in well ahead of expectations, according to data released at the end of last week. The data lifted US equity markets to finish an otherwise bleak week. This week, investors will get an update on central banks’ thinking with interest rate decisions...

The current economic and financial market environment is highly uncertain, with ge­opolitics, central banks and elections all making the next few months difficult to navigate. In this House View’s main article, we take a break from the day-to-day market environment and instead focus on our...

In this month's House View, we review some of our "Outlook 2024" forecasts and take a look at the latest developments in the financial markets. In our Macro article, we discuss the challenges faced by the manufacturing sector in recent years, highlight the factors behind this development and...

Major asset classes have started the new year on diverging paths without pricing in a uniform macroeconomic environment for 2024. To hedge against the risk of a hard landing, we would prefer government bonds with longer maturities. Overall, we consider the opportunities and risks to be balanced...

Global growth rolls into 2024 in a sluggish pace, leaving the burden of driving market optimism to disinflation and hopes for "sooner" and "sharper" interest rate cuts. While the probability of our current "high for longer" base case has indeed receded, we still think it will take a prolonged...

The Fed and the ECB will have to maintain their tight monetary regimes for longer. In the absence of an unexpected recessionary dynamic, decisive central bank rate cuts are therefore unlikely in the first half of 2024. Following the sharp rise in government bonds, we have decided to reduce our...

As we get closer to turning points, both on the economic growth and on the monetary policy sides, uncertainty reaches its peak. Geopolitics have come on top of this already uncertain environment, compounding a challenging combination of high bond yields and slowing economic growth. Higher...

Like the two characters waiting for Godot in Samuel Beckett’s play, many market participants have been waiting for a recession in the United States, which may never come. Many experts assumed that US economic growth would be much weaker this year than it has been so far. And most of them have...

Risks to economic growth dynamics have increased, triggering a downgrade of emerging markets against an upgrade of the more insulated US stock market, now both "Neutral". In Fixed Income we expect the interest rate environment to remain at elevated levels for longer. In our current House View...

Global growth weakness is likely to continue well into autumn, but the US economy has shown remarkable resilience. The stabilisation of the macroeconomic environment has led us to increase the global equity allocation to “Neutral”. On a tactical basis, we are starting to take profits in gold...

As the second quarter of 2023 draws to a close, the longest day of the year is already behind us in the northern hemisphere. For investors, the question now is whether the third quarter will follow on seamlessly from the first two. In the coming weeks, capital markets and investors will have to...

In our previous analysis from November 2023 titled "Beyond the Middle East conflict: gold shines in times of crisis" we highlighted a dark moment for the Middle East and suggested that it was an opportune time to invest in gold. And indeed it was. Since then, however, the dynamics have changed.

International trade is an economic pillar for European countries that has become increasingly important in recent decades. According to the World Bank, the share of trade (exports plus imports) in GDP of EU members has risen from 40% to 106% over the past 50 years, reflecting the benefits of...

One year has passed since the Credit Suisse AT1 bond default. In this article, we take a look at the lessons learned from this banking crisis and examine the importance of subordinated bank bonds for investors.

Europe is not adequately prepared for a worsening global warming. This is the conclusion of the European Environment Agency (EEA) in its first climate risk report. Europe has already experienced a significant increase in climate extremes, with more severe heatwaves, droughts and floods in...

The Swiss franc has weakened following the Swiss National Bank's decision to lower the policy rate ahead of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. The SNB's move takes into account reduced inflationary pressures and the appreciation of the Swiss franc in recent quarters. The rate...

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has taken an important step in the right direction, even if the markets were ultimately disappointed, as the performance of the Japanese yen (JPY) shows. It fell both before and after the monetary policy meeting. However, the value of the JPY is expected to improve as...

The 2023 reporting season shows mixed economic results worldwide. While the US market is experiencing a moderate recovery, Europe continues to struggle with declining profits. The following article analyses these developments and takes a look at expectations for the first quarter of 2024.

The soaring shares of Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla have propelled these tech giants to new heights, accounting for nearly 60% of the S&P 500 index's performance. However, concerns arise among some investors regarding the concentration and rapid growth of these...

Against the backdrop of gradually declining inflation rates in the world's two largest economies, central banks are facing important monetary policy decisions. While financial markets expect monetary policy to ease next year, with four to five rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the...

Technical analysis is a method that uses price data and charts to decipher market dynamics and predict market movements. This approach stems from an investment philosophy distinctly different from that of fundamental analysis, yet in practice, they are not entirely exclusive. Technical analysis...